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Who knows if it is enforceable, but it is my understanding that the remaining members of the Big 12 signed away their television rights to the conference for the next six seasons. That, in essence, means that if anyone leaves, the money from any home, televised game would go to the Big 12. The Big Ten has a similar deal in place through something like 2028. It is my guess that the current ten members of the Big 12 stick together for at least the next six years.
I think the next move will be to add Louisville and Rutgers or Cincinnati (or see if they can get BYU for football only and Notre Dame for other sports). If the Notre Dame thing happens, I think that will be the next source of contention, as Texas may want to try something similar.
As for the Big East, I think they could have UCF, SMU, and Houston in the fold at any time, but the Western conference initiatives have failed (no BYU, probably no Boise State or Air Force). If they hold Pitt, Syracuse, and possibly WVU (although our guys think we play in the Big 12 next season) and add those three, that gives them a 10 or 11 team conference for 2012 and will let them re-assess when the future of the BCS becomes more clear. If Louisville and another team leave, it will be hard to keep the football conference together and you might end up seeing UConn and Cincy or Rutgers in the MAC for football and Big East for other sports and USF to CUSA.
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