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Breeze · 03-07-2012, 08:11 AM

Event 7 - Discus - Card Preview

*note - the allout column is all about risk reward, so the most likely outcome in that column is typically going to be less than the average, but the potential upside is typically greater and in some cases signficantly greater...

Babson
Safe - low appears to be an embarassing 103 on the 26. High is a very nice 170 on 24. The high probability rolls are littered with results ranging from upper 150s to mid 160s. Quite a few 140 results in the teens and low 20 rolls. Most likely result - Upper 150s
Average - serveral results in the mid to upper 170s...including really nice ones on 36, 37, 32, 31 and 25...a few more 170+ results mix in. Worst result looks like 156 and there are about 4 of them...most likely result - low 170s
All Out - Got a big 182 but would need to roll a 12 to get it. A few upper 170s...low is a 142 on the next to impossible to roll 19. quite a rew results in the mid 150 to 160...most likely outcome mid 160s

Ginsberg
Safe - low looks like a 115 on 11, there are a few 117s including one in a bad spot on 36. The high is 135 and there are a few other results over 130. Most likely result is probably mid 120s to low 130s
Average - got a bad 118 on a roll of 30...but other than that not a bad column for his skill in the event. quite a few results over 150...but only 1 in the high probability rolls of the 30s...Most likely result is low 140s.
All Out - 161 looks like the top, on a roll of 11...got a 158 on the 17...a couple other good results but for the most part the rest of this colum looks like results in the 140s. Most likely result is in the mid to upper 140s

Nielsen
Safe - the shortest throw in the column looks like a 123, high end is in the 150s but its a low probability roll. Quite a rew over 140, but most of the card and all of the high probability rolls are in the 130s...most likely result is lower to mid 130s.
Average - Pretty solid column here...High exceeds 160, 2 of them...one on a low probability rollm, the other on a very promising 36. The low is 141, and most of the column is upper 140s to mid 150s. Most likely outcome low to mid 150s
All Out - This column basically comes down to 3 rolls...18 (good luck), 22, and 24. All three of these rolls is above 160...the rest are 149 or below...most likely result mid 140s

McCloud
Safe - low looks like a 128 in a bad spot on the 36. Another poor result of 129 on the 34 and a 130 on the 33...all this is very disconcerting...but the column has some very good results too, including a high of 159 on the 32...and several more exceeding 150. Most likely outcome low 140s...
Average - low end is 141 on the 38, right next to a 143 on the 37...but the rest of the card is pretty strong. Got a 170 (but on 19), and serveral in the 160s, including the 33 and 36. Most likely result low 160s
All Out - Got a 175 on the 11...a 176 on the 15, a 170 on the 19....then most of the column is low 150s to mid 160s, but enough 140 results to make things interesting....most likely result is mid 150s.

Llyw
Safe - 121 on the 18...a few other results under 130..but most of the card is in the low 130s...with a ghigh of 147, which appears a couple of times. There is a nice 144 on the 35...most likely result is upper 130s to mid 140s
Average - a 135 on the 27...a few more in the upper 130s and more in the lower 140s. High is 159 and there a bunch of results in the 150s for rolls in the 30s...most likely result is lower to mid 150s
All Out - 3 results greater than 160...with the exception of a few spots, most of the rest of the results are in the 140s...most likely result mid 140s

Rambis
Safe - a 127 on the 26 is the low roll, the high roll looks like a 158 on the prime location of 35. a bunch of results in this column are over 150, and with the exception of the low end roll, I don't believe any others drop below 140...most likely result - lower 150s
Average - half of this colum results exceed 160... the low is a 141. Got some good 160+ results on rolls of 31, 33, 36, 37, 39, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26...all high probability rolls...most likely result low to mid 160s
All Out - 7 results over 170, all but 1 are in the teens (the other is on 20). The rest of the column is upper 140s to upper 150s...Most likely result - tough to call this one...but it is probably an upper 150...

Justice
Safe - 123 is the low end of the scale and 149 is the high...good news is the high is on a roll of 33...most of the column is evenly spread through the 130s and 140s. Most likely result is upper 130s.
Average - a 136 appears to be the worst that you can do, but it appears a couple of times (neither high probability rolls though)..most of the column is mid to low 150s and the high is 157 on the 30...most likely result - low 150s
All Out - honestly, I only see 2 rolls worth going for here...an 18 and a 26...both results are greater than 160...but the rest of the column isn't nearly as good as the average column....

Bafou
Safe - wide spread of results here...pretty evenly spaced out. Low end is in the mid to upper 120s, high end is in the upper 140s. Most likely result is in the low to mid 130s....
Average - much better column here...with low end results of 131 and 136 and the rest of the column being 140 or greater...high is a 155 on the 37, and a couple more nice 150+ results on 38, 39, and 31...others scattered around...most likely result is in the mid to upper 140s
All Out - high is 162, also there is a 160, a 159, a 156, and a 150...everything else is 140s or below. Most likely outcome is upper 140s...

McGillicuddy
Safe - Awful column, low result is a 110, high is a 148...nothing special about those numbers...what makes this an awful colum is the 117 on 36 and 37, the 119 on 35, the 120 on 34...that is the heard of the card and all the results are poor...most likely outcome is - probably one of the rolls mentioned....
Average - much better here...low is a 118...the high is 154. A couple other results in the 150s, including one on a roll of 31. Most of the column is in the 140s...most likely outcome is lower 140s
All Out - high is 150..and I could 2 of them in the low probability areas of the teens. a few upper 140s and the rest is a mix of poor results and mid to lower 140s. Most likely result is low 140s.

Ashkayev
Safe - low is in the mid 120...and with the 126 on 35 and the 125 on 36...combined with 2 more rolls in the mid 120s on the upper edge of the 30s...this column has some concerns...high is 149 in a nice spot on the 24. Most likely result is upper 120s to mid 130s
Average - 138 is the low, then it jumps into the 140s...high is 156 in a low probability area, but there are a couple of 155 including one on the 37...most likely result is mid 140 or low 150s.
All Out - This column isn't worth playing. The only result in the entire column better than the average is the 161 on the 21...

Gunderson
Safe - Got some very good results in this column - including the column high of 159 sitting on the 32. Got a 157 on 38 as well. There are a few other results in excess of 150. The low looks like a 134, but there are some upper 130's spread around and a couple sitting in the upper to mid 30 rolls. Most likely result is mid 140s
Average - a bunch of results in the 160s...15 by my count...including all of the 30s except the lowest probability rolls in the 30s of 30 and 39...almost all of the 20s is also greater than 160...the lower results are mostly concentrated in the lower probability rolls of the teens. most likely result lower 160s.
All Out - 3 results greater than 170, including a 175 on the 11 and two 173s on the 12 and 20. Got a couple of upper 160s, and the rest is the risk stuff of mid 150s and down...to the lower 140s...most likely result is lower 150s

Gonzalez
Safe - strange column in that the results are pretty tightly bunched... from the mid 120s to the mid 130s. A couple of results in the 140s, but all are in low probability rolls, except the nice 140 on 33 and the 145 on 23 and 149 on 2 (all pretty decent probability rolls)...most likely result is upper 120s to lower 130s.
Average - again pretty tightly bunched...low in the lower 130s, but none on a roll in the 30s (which is good), and a high of lower 150s, and a couple of those are possible with rolls in the 30s. Most likely result is mid 140s
All Out - 5 results of 150 or better...top end is 162 on the 15. Rest of the results are between upper 130s to upper 140s. Low end is a nasty 128 on the 22...most likely result is mid 140s...

03-07-2012, 08:11 AM	#297
Breeze Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Northern Suburbs of ATL	Event 7 - Discus - Card Preview note - the allout column is all about risk reward, so the most likely outcome in that column is typically going to be less than the average, but the potential upside is typically greater and in some cases signficantly greater... Babson* Safe - low appears to be an embarassing 103 on the 26. High is a very nice 170 on 24. The high probability rolls are littered with results ranging from upper 150s to mid 160s. Quite a few 140 results in the teens and low 20 rolls. Most likely result - Upper 150s Average - serveral results in the mid to upper 170s...including really nice ones on 36, 37, 32, 31 and 25...a few more 170+ results mix in. Worst result looks like 156 and there are about 4 of them...most likely result - low 170s All Out - Got a big 182 but would need to roll a 12 to get it. A few upper 170s...low is a 142 on the next to impossible to roll 19. quite a rew results in the mid 150 to 160...most likely outcome mid 160s *Ginsberg* Safe - low looks like a 115 on 11, there are a few 117s including one in a bad spot on 36. The high is 135 and there are a few other results over 130. Most likely result is probably mid 120s to low 130s Average - got a bad 118 on a roll of 30...but other than that not a bad column for his skill in the event. quite a few results over 150...but only 1 in the high probability rolls of the 30s...Most likely result is low 140s. All Out - 161 looks like the top, on a roll of 11...got a 158 on the 17...a couple other good results but for the most part the rest of this colum looks like results in the 140s. Most likely result is in the mid to upper 140s *Nielsen* Safe - the shortest throw in the column looks like a 123, high end is in the 150s but its a low probability roll. Quite a rew over 140, but most of the card and all of the high probability rolls are in the 130s...most likely result is lower to mid 130s. Average - Pretty solid column here...High exceeds 160, 2 of them...one on a low probability rollm, the other on a very promising 36. The low is 141, and most of the column is upper 140s to mid 150s. Most likely outcome low to mid 150s All Out - This column basically comes down to 3 rolls...18 (good luck), 22, and 24. All three of these rolls is above 160...the rest are 149 or below...most likely result mid 140s *McCloud* Safe - low looks like a 128 in a bad spot on the 36. Another poor result of 129 on the 34 and a 130 on the 33...all this is very disconcerting...but the column has some very good results too, including a high of 159 on the 32...and several more exceeding 150. Most likely outcome low 140s... Average - low end is 141 on the 38, right next to a 143 on the 37...but the rest of the card is pretty strong. Got a 170 (but on 19), and serveral in the 160s, including the 33 and 36. Most likely result low 160s All Out - Got a 175 on the 11...a 176 on the 15, a 170 on the 19....then most of the column is low 150s to mid 160s, but enough 140 results to make things interesting....most likely result is mid 150s. *Llyw* Safe - 121 on the 18...a few other results under 130..but most of the card is in the low 130s...with a ghigh of 147, which appears a couple of times. There is a nice 144 on the 35...most likely result is upper 130s to mid 140s Average - a 135 on the 27...a few more in the upper 130s and more in the lower 140s. High is 159 and there a bunch of results in the 150s for rolls in the 30s...most likely result is lower to mid 150s All Out - 3 results greater than 160...with the exception of a few spots, most of the rest of the results are in the 140s...most likely result mid 140s *Rambis* Safe - a 127 on the 26 is the low roll, the high roll looks like a 158 on the prime location of 35. a bunch of results in this column are over 150, and with the exception of the low end roll, I don't believe any others drop below 140...most likely result - lower 150s Average - half of this colum results exceed 160... the low is a 141. Got some good 160+ results on rolls of 31, 33, 36, 37, 39, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26...all high probability rolls...most likely result low to mid 160s All Out - 7 results over 170, all but 1 are in the teens (the other is on 20). The rest of the column is upper 140s to upper 150s...Most likely result - tough to call this one...but it is probably an upper 150... *Justice* Safe - 123 is the low end of the scale and 149 is the high...good news is the high is on a roll of 33...most of the column is evenly spread through the 130s and 140s. Most likely result is upper 130s. Average - a 136 appears to be the worst that you can do, but it appears a couple of times (neither high probability rolls though)..most of the column is mid to low 150s and the high is 157 on the 30...most likely result - low 150s All Out - honestly, I only see 2 rolls worth going for here...an 18 and a 26...both results are greater than 160...but the rest of the column isn't nearly as good as the average column.... *Bafou* Safe - wide spread of results here...pretty evenly spaced out. Low end is in the mid to upper 120s, high end is in the upper 140s. Most likely result is in the low to mid 130s.... Average - much better column here...with low end results of 131 and 136 and the rest of the column being 140 or greater...high is a 155 on the 37, and a couple more nice 150+ results on 38, 39, and 31...others scattered around...most likely result is in the mid to upper 140s All Out - high is 162, also there is a 160, a 159, a 156, and a 150...everything else is 140s or below. Most likely outcome is upper 140s... *McGillicuddy* Safe - Awful column, low result is a 110, high is a 148...nothing special about those numbers...what makes this an awful colum is the 117 on 36 and 37, the 119 on 35, the 120 on 34...that is the heard of the card and all the results are poor...most likely outcome is - probably one of the rolls mentioned.... Average - much better here...low is a 118...the high is 154. A couple other results in the 150s, including one on a roll of 31. Most of the column is in the 140s...most likely outcome is lower 140s All Out - high is 150..and I could 2 of them in the low probability areas of the teens. a few upper 140s and the rest is a mix of poor results and mid to lower 140s. Most likely result is low 140s. *Ashkayev* Safe - low is in the mid 120...and with the 126 on 35 and the 125 on 36...combined with 2 more rolls in the mid 120s on the upper edge of the 30s...this column has some concerns...high is 149 in a nice spot on the 24. Most likely result is upper 120s to mid 130s Average - 138 is the low, then it jumps into the 140s...high is 156 in a low probability area, but there are a couple of 155 including one on the 37...most likely result is mid 140 or low 150s. All Out - This column isn't worth playing. The only result in the entire column better than the average is the 161 on the 21... *Gunderson* Safe - Got some very good results in this column - including the column high of 159 sitting on the 32. Got a 157 on 38 as well. There are a few other results in excess of 150. The low looks like a 134, but there are some upper 130's spread around and a couple sitting in the upper to mid 30 rolls. Most likely result is mid 140s Average - a bunch of results in the 160s...15 by my count...including all of the 30s except the lowest probability rolls in the 30s of 30 and 39...almost all of the 20s is also greater than 160...the lower results are mostly concentrated in the lower probability rolls of the teens. most likely result lower 160s. All Out - 3 results greater than 170, including a 175 on the 11 and two 173s on the 12 and 20. Got a couple of upper 160s, and the rest is the risk stuff of mid 150s and down...to the lower 140s...most likely result is lower 150s *Gonzalez* Safe - strange column in that the results are pretty tightly bunched... from the mid 120s to the mid 130s. A couple of results in the 140s, but all are in low probability rolls, except the nice 140 on 33 and the 145 on 23 and 149 on 2 (all pretty decent probability rolls)...most likely result is upper 120s to lower 130s. Average - again pretty tightly bunched...low in the lower 130s, but none on a roll in the 30s (which is good), and a high of lower 150s, and a couple of those are possible with rolls in the 30s. Most likely result is mid 140s All Out - 5 results of 150 or better...top end is 162 on the 15. Rest of the results are between upper 130s to upper 140s. Low end is a nasty 128 on the 22...most likely result is mid 140s...