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Originally Posted by kcchief19
Intrade puts Obama's odds of reelection at 60 percent right now. A lot can and will change in the next eight months though.
At this point in 2008, McCain had the nomination clinched and the Obama-Clinton fight would last more than two more months.
Oddly, I do think it's in Romney's best interest for everybody else to stay in the race if they aren't dropping out together. If the anti-Romney vote coalesces around Santorum, it's early enough for Romney to be caught. The best thing Romney has going for him now is Gingrich's ego. Gingrich appears incapable of bowing out.
I do not agree with the conventional wisdom that the longer the fight, the better for Obama. By the time October comes around, what else can be said about Romney that hasn't been said? I think this primary campaign will inoculate Romney to a degree for the general election.
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I saw a graph a while ago that showed that favorability ratings don't rise a lot during the presidential campaign. If Romney wins in November he'll have to overcome a -10 to -15 net favorability.
I've been in the likability wins presidential elections camp for years and I don't think Romney can win being a gaffe prone robot.