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Breeze · 03-21-2012, 06:44 AM

Event 9 - Javelin - Card Breakdowns

Babson - Needs to open his lead hear, because the 1500 will be brutal for him...
Safe - low result looks like a 168 on the 25...but everything else appears to be over 180, with a high of 222. In all 15 results are greater than 200...most likely outcome is in the upper 180s to mid 190s
Average - high looks to be 232...which isn't much of an improvement over the high in the conservative column, but the odds of getting a roll of 222 or better are actually pretty good. I count 13 results over 222 in this column, and not a single successful result under 200...mostly likely looks like a low 220
All Out - Best result is 237, also have a couple 235s...and a couple more 233s. Low is a 200 exactly...

Ginsberg - is poor in this event, needs to stay close to leaders for his strong 1500 skills to matter...
Safe - a couple of 145s and 146s are ugly outcomes...could get as high as a 201 but it isn't likely sitting on a roll of 12. Most likely upper 170s to low 180s
Average - Better results here including a handfull over 200...with a nice 203 on a roll of 36. High is a 214, low ends look to be around low 170s. Most likley still looks to be in the 170s, but many more better results in this column than the safe one...
All Out - 219 on 28, 214 on 23, 219 on 17...and a bunch of 190 outcomes in the lower probability rolls...mixed in with a few 170s and low 180 outcomes...

Nielsen - With some luck here he could greatly increase the likelihood of getting on the podium and might close the gap on Babson further...
Safe - 10 results over 200...with 218 in the midteens as the high...does ahve a 216 on 31...low is in the 160s, but it only looks like there is 1 and the rest are mid 170s or higher...most likely - upper 170s to low 180s
Average - a few results under 200, but most are mid 210s with a few in the upper 210s with a couple of 220s, including 2 real nice ones on 36 and 37...most likely result (tempting to say 220 based on the previously mentioned spots, but I'll say upper to mid 210s)
All Out - 4 results greater than 220...high is a 236 but on 11...low is a 182...the poor results aren't as prevelent in this column as usual, but there are still quite a few in the low 200s...but I only count 4 results under 200 here...

McCloud - an event favorite who needs a good result and has a pretty good card...
Safe - high is 223 on a very attainable roll of 24. low looks like a 178...12 result over 200...most likley result 190s...
Average - not a single result under 200...got a very nice 232 (column high) on 36, and a couple of others in the teens...most likely result is mid 210s, but serveral above 220 are available
All Out - No results under 200...most are in the mid 210s...but 6 results are over 230...

Llyw - A good card, but not a dominating card, will need to roll one of the better results to move up, but shouldn't do poorly either...
Safe - 9 results over 200..including 4 nices ones running between 28 and 31...which also includes two of the column high 216 rolls. Low is a 164. Most likely result is in the low to mid 190s
Average - High is a 27 in the mid teens. Most of the resutls are greater than 200, with only 4 being under that figure. Most likley results are around 205 or in the upper 210s.
All Out - high is a 235 on 23 which is nice. Also have a 225 on 29, and a couple other 220+ results in the teens. The low end of the column is 201...

Rambis - another event favorite, based on his current standing, strenght in this event, and the ability to be pretty good in the 1500 - he's hoping for a strong finish so he can slip onto the podium...but it has to start here...
Safe 14 results over 200...with a very nice 214 on 34...low is 170 on the 27. Most likly outcome is in the low 190s.
Average - enitre colum is over 200...most of it over 210...high is 232, but it is on 29. 3 of the 6 successful results in the 30s are over 220. Most likely low 220s...
All Out - nothing under 200..5 results over 230...with a high of 238 on the 23...a 232 on the 28 is nice too...

Justice - coming off the best result in the pole vault...looking to continue the momentum, but this is one of the hardest cards to evaluate...not because results are bad, just balanced between only pretty good and real good results...
Safe - Got results in the 170s, 4 of them for the low. High is 216 in the teens. Most likely result is in the low 190s
Average - here is where things are tough to call...equal spread of results in the upper 200s and mid 210s...doesn't sound like a big spread but can be significant in event standings. Also a few 220 results and sub 200 results just to keep things interesting...most likely - mid 210s.
All Out - 5 results over 220, with a 219 as well...only a couple results under 200...and server in mixed in between 200 and 216...

Bafou - With the injury in the previous event, Bafou will be forced to do all attempts conservatively (default game rule)...this will further hamstring his chances of making any progress in this event...
Safe - for a conservative column created from a D grade in the event, Bafou actually has a decent column. Low is a 173, high is 209...most of the mid 30 rolls are upper 180s to mid 190s and thus the most likely outcome...

McGillicuddy - along with Ginsberg, one of the event underdogs...not much of a chance of moving up in this event...
Safe - low is a 145 and there are a few of them...the most alarming thing is a terrible 162 on 34 and a worse 159 on 35. These are surrounded by results in the mid 170s as well. I only count 2 results over 200..most likely result is mid 170s.
Average - do have few results over 200, with a high of 215 (roll of 15 needed). does have a 204 on 36...low end is still low 170s. Most likely is hard to call but I'll say around 200...because a few are spinkled in the 20s, plus the one on 36...
All Out - can get a 220 with a lucky roll of 11...only 2 other result over 200...low is in the mid 170s...most likely is in the 190s...

Ashkayev - Like Bafou...will be limited to conservative attempts due to injury, all but ensuring he'll end up in the cellar, unless he gets some fortune rolls from here on out...
Safe - For a safe column it isn't bad with 9 results over 200 feet. High is a 214...on 25 and 19. most of the 30s are in the upper 180s, and with additional similar distances spread around the rest of the column, that's going to be the most likely result.

Gunderson - another event favorite...
Safe - got a 222 on a roll of 13 for a high, and a low of 177...there are quite a few results over 200 but judging from the high probability outcomes the most likely result will be in the lower 180s or upper 190s...
Average - Strong column here...with bid rolls in the 30s, including a 221 on 31, and a 232 (column high) on 36. 1 result under 200, a 197 on the 30...A bunch of results in th mid 220s so that is probably the most likely outcome
b]All Out[/b] - 238 on 23 is the max...no results under 200...6 results in the 230s, but none in the 220s...rest about equally spread between the 210s and 200s...

Gonzalez - not a strong competitor in this event but first glance it appears he got a lucky break during card creation...
Safe - surprisingly there are quite a few results over 200...with a high of 214 appears on the 19 & 25...low is 173...with aabout 5 other results in the 170s. Most of the card, including the high probability rolls in the 30s are in the upper 180s and lower 190s so that is the most likely result.
Average - Very similary to the conservative column, but the low end comes up into the upper 180s and the number of 200+ results increases a bit. High is 224, but it is on 16. There are some 200+ outcomes on higher probability rolls like the 211 on teh 36 and the 213 on the 25...most likely result will be around a 210...
All Out - got a 237 on the 13...but most of the column is just over 200...low is a 192...most likely around a 205...

03-21-2012, 06:44 AM	#398
Breeze Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Northern Suburbs of ATL	Event 9 - Javelin - Card Breakdowns Babson - Needs to open his lead hear, because the 1500 will be brutal for him... Safe - low result looks like a 168 on the 25...but everything else appears to be over 180, with a high of 222. In all 15 results are greater than 200...most likely outcome is in the upper 180s to mid 190s Average - high looks to be 232...which isn't much of an improvement over the high in the conservative column, but the odds of getting a roll of 222 or better are actually pretty good. I count 13 results over 222 in this column, and not a single successful result under 200...mostly likely looks like a low 220 All Out - Best result is 237, also have a couple 235s...and a couple more 233s. Low is a 200 exactly... Ginsberg - is poor in this event, needs to stay close to leaders for his strong 1500 skills to matter... Safe - a couple of 145s and 146s are ugly outcomes...could get as high as a 201 but it isn't likely sitting on a roll of 12. Most likely upper 170s to low 180s Average - Better results here including a handfull over 200...with a nice 203 on a roll of 36. High is a 214, low ends look to be around low 170s. Most likley still looks to be in the 170s, but many more better results in this column than the safe one... All Out - 219 on 28, 214 on 23, 219 on 17...and a bunch of 190 outcomes in the lower probability rolls...mixed in with a few 170s and low 180 outcomes... Nielsen - With some luck here he could greatly increase the likelihood of getting on the podium and might close the gap on Babson further... Safe - 10 results over 200...with 218 in the midteens as the high...does ahve a 216 on 31...low is in the 160s, but it only looks like there is 1 and the rest are mid 170s or higher...most likely - upper 170s to low 180s Average - a few results under 200, but most are mid 210s with a few in the upper 210s with a couple of 220s, including 2 real nice ones on 36 and 37...most likely result (tempting to say 220 based on the previously mentioned spots, but I'll say upper to mid 210s) All Out - 4 results greater than 220...high is a 236 but on 11...low is a 182...the poor results aren't as prevelent in this column as usual, but there are still quite a few in the low 200s...but I only count 4 results under 200 here... McCloud - an event favorite who needs a good result and has a pretty good card... Safe - high is 223 on a very attainable roll of 24. low looks like a 178...12 result over 200...most likley result 190s... Average - not a single result under 200...got a very nice 232 (column high) on 36, and a couple of others in the teens...most likely result is mid 210s, but serveral above 220 are available All Out - No results under 200...most are in the mid 210s...but 6 results are over 230... Llyw - A good card, but not a dominating card, will need to roll one of the better results to move up, but shouldn't do poorly either... Safe - 9 results over 200..including 4 nices ones running between 28 and 31...which also includes two of the column high 216 rolls. Low is a 164. Most likely result is in the low to mid 190s Average - High is a 27 in the mid teens. Most of the resutls are greater than 200, with only 4 being under that figure. Most likley results are around 205 or in the upper 210s. All Out - high is a 235 on 23 which is nice. Also have a 225 on 29, and a couple other 220+ results in the teens. The low end of the column is 201... Rambis - another event favorite, based on his current standing, strenght in this event, and the ability to be pretty good in the 1500 - he's hoping for a strong finish so he can slip onto the podium...but it has to start here... Safe 14 results over 200...with a very nice 214 on 34...low is 170 on the 27. Most likly outcome is in the low 190s. Average - enitre colum is over 200...most of it over 210...high is 232, but it is on 29. 3 of the 6 successful results in the 30s are over 220. Most likely low 220s... All Out - nothing under 200..5 results over 230...with a high of 238 on the 23...a 232 on the 28 is nice too... Justice - coming off the best result in the pole vault...looking to continue the momentum, but this is one of the hardest cards to evaluate...not because results are bad, just balanced between only pretty good and real good results... Safe - Got results in the 170s, 4 of them for the low. High is 216 in the teens. Most likely result is in the low 190s Average - here is where things are tough to call...equal spread of results in the upper 200s and mid 210s...doesn't sound like a big spread but can be significant in event standings. Also a few 220 results and sub 200 results just to keep things interesting...most likely - mid 210s. All Out - 5 results over 220, with a 219 as well...only a couple results under 200...and server in mixed in between 200 and 216... Bafou - With the injury in the previous event, Bafou will be forced to do all attempts conservatively (default game rule)...this will further hamstring his chances of making any progress in this event... Safe - for a conservative column created from a D grade in the event, Bafou actually has a decent column. Low is a 173, high is 209...most of the mid 30 rolls are upper 180s to mid 190s and thus the most likely outcome... McGillicuddy - along with Ginsberg, one of the event underdogs...not much of a chance of moving up in this event... Safe - low is a 145 and there are a few of them...the most alarming thing is a terrible 162 on 34 and a worse 159 on 35. These are surrounded by results in the mid 170s as well. I only count 2 results over 200..most likely result is mid 170s. Average - do have few results over 200, with a high of 215 (roll of 15 needed). does have a 204 on 36...low end is still low 170s. Most likely is hard to call but I'll say around 200...because a few are spinkled in the 20s, plus the one on 36... All Out - can get a 220 with a lucky roll of 11...only 2 other result over 200...low is in the mid 170s...most likely is in the 190s... Ashkayev - Like Bafou...will be limited to conservative attempts due to injury, all but ensuring he'll end up in the cellar, unless he gets some fortune rolls from here on out... Safe - For a safe column it isn't bad with 9 results over 200 feet. High is a 214...on 25 and 19. most of the 30s are in the upper 180s, and with additional similar distances spread around the rest of the column, that's going to be the most likely result. Gunderson - another event favorite... Safe - got a 222 on a roll of 13 for a high, and a low of 177...there are quite a few results over 200 but judging from the high probability outcomes the most likely result will be in the lower 180s or upper 190s... Average - Strong column here...with bid rolls in the 30s, including a 221 on 31, and a 232 (column high) on 36. 1 result under 200, a 197 on the 30...A bunch of results in th mid 220s so that is probably the most likely outcome b]All Out[/b] - 238 on 23 is the max...no results under 200...6 results in the 230s, but none in the 220s...rest about equally spread between the 210s and 200s... Gonzalez - not a strong competitor in this event but first glance it appears he got a lucky break during card creation... Safe - surprisingly there are quite a few results over 200...with a high of 214 appears on the 19 & 25...low is 173...with aabout 5 other results in the 170s. Most of the card, including the high probability rolls in the 30s are in the upper 180s and lower 190s so that is the most likely result. Average - Very similary to the conservative column, but the low end comes up into the upper 180s and the number of 200+ results increases a bit. High is 224, but it is on 16. There are some 200+ outcomes on higher probability rolls like the 211 on teh 36 and the 213 on the 25...most likely result will be around a 210... All Out - got a 237 on the 13...but most of the column is just over 200...low is a 192...most likely around a 205... Last edited by Breeze : 03-21-2012 at 10:08 AM.