Quote:
Originally Posted by k0ruptr
I'd wager a sig bet or something that his final ERA is closer to 3.5 then 4.5
His BABIP is rediculously low yes but his control is extremely tighter then the last cpl years. Also he's healthy. Saber metrics tell a story. But watching him so far this year has me leaning towards more Peavy of old then recent.
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Yes, his control is better. But that has no bearing on his BABIP - that's luck and defense (and given a slight boost due to his strong fly ball tendencies so far). And his home run rate is ridiculously low, especially considering his career low groundball rate. Again, basically luck.
The most encouraging sign (if you're a Peavy/White Sox fan) is that his velocity is up from last year. It hasn't shown up in an improved K rate - he doesn't appear to be missing bats any more than the previous 2 years - but he's walking less, which obviously is a benefit.
I'm not trying to take a dump on Peavy fans, but the in-depth numbers strongly suggest his ERA is greatly benefiting from luck right now.