Quote:
Originally Posted by sterlingice
Isn't that just a smidge dogmatic? Yes, better than traditional stats, to be sure. However, none have a 1.00 correlation to reality and I have yet to see that stat that allows me to predict winning baseball games at a perfect clip.
SI
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Projections and stats aren't the same thing. One predicts the future and one explains the past. Advanced stats do a very good job of explaining hitting and pitching performance, but defense is still in its infancy. Taking Peavy as the example, the stats show what's happening very well. That doesn't mean we can predict with absolute certainty what will happen next month, but we know very clearly why Peavy has done as well as he has this year.