Quote:
Originally Posted by Crapshoot
I'm actually shocked by that. Obama's % of the white vote in the deep south is stunningly bad; 10% in Alabama in 2008. Heck, if you look systemtically, the deep south is the political / racially segregated part of America - Minorities vote Democrat, Whites vote Republican. See table below.
Tables: White Vote for Obama « All Other Persons
1) In GA, I could see the city of Atlanta being a counter (urban liberals to pair with minorities); in SC, I'm curious what's driving it - what the hell passes for a city in South Carolina?  I thought the minority population in SC (African Americans) is only about 30% (for which we assume 95% will vote for him), so he needs to get a substantial portion of the white vote (30% + ) to win. I am surprised that he did better amongst the white vote in SC (where he got 26% of the White Vote) in 2008. In other words, is this a case of South Carolina being more "liberal" than Alabama or Louisiana or MS, or what are we missing? |
I think you're missing how disliked Romney is among the conservative Republicans in the South. Sure, there will be some "anything is better than Obama" votes and some "anything is better than a nigger" votes. But there will also be, I suspect, a significant number of people who normally vote Republican for President who won't be able to bring themselves to vote for Romney. Thinking about it more, it may be that those numbers point to just the opposite of what you're saying: it may well be a case of SC's Repubs being *more* conservative than Georgia's, therefore more likely to see little/no difference between Obama and Romney, and therefore more likely to either sit it out, or vote their consciences by writing in someone like Santorum or Palin.
Ultimately, the big part of my thinking from the day I made that semi-prediction is that a Romney nomination would lose enough conservative Repubs to hand Obama a deep south state or two, since I suspect that there will be another very strong black voter turnout.