Quote:
Originally Posted by SirFozzie
Also, looks like Romney's given up on persuading the undecideds to go for him
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{shrug} There aren't that many of those left, and going after them is likely a diminishing returns thing as he turns off votes he might otherwise have gotten.
ABC/WaPo poll shows
only 13% admitting a chance that they might change their minds by November. But the actual number of undecideds -- who can't predict which way they'll vote -- seems to be quite smaller, only 2% according to
this LA Times piece (republished by AP) and that's a figure that includes people who are largely disaffected & aren't likely to vote anyway.
A couple of great points in that LAT/AP piece
1)
Quote:
Political scientist Alan Abramowitz of Emory University has estimated that in 2008, only about one-third of the swing voters who were leaning toward one candidate or another actually switched sides before Election Day. But of those who did, most “came home” to their own party’s nominee.
That’s one reason the presidential campaign is becoming more vitriolic. Partisan rhetoric doesn’t always drive swing voters away; instead, it can remind them where their loyalties are, and convince them that there’s something they just don’t like about the other side.
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In other words, only 13% can't tell you for sure already and only 1/3rd of those seem likely to switch ... that's about 4% IF they vote at all.
2)
Quote:
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As Vanderbilt political scientist John G. Geer told me: “A billion dollars is chasing 5 percent of the vote in 20 percent of the states.”
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Hell, even Stephen Colbert managed a solid observation:
“The fate of our country is now in the hands of people who don’t think about what they want until they get right up to the register at McDonald’s,”
Besides, if you're undecided at this point then what are the odds that you're gonna vote anyway?