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Based on the campaign schedules as we enter the last week, you can glean where the campaigns think the election is headed. Looks like Romney is all Ohio, Florida and a few scattered places elsewhere. Obama hits the road again tomorrow and heads to Nevada, Colorado and Wisconsin.
Romney is all in on having to win Ohio and Florida to win. Obama looks to be focusing on the "firewall" states with a sprinkling of Ohio. He's sending Clinton in to Ohio. That tells me that Obama's team thinks they have Ohio and are using Clinton to close the deal, while Obama focuses on states that can clinch the election with an Ohio win.
I still think if Obama wins the Romney fascination with Florida will be the undoing. I understand why because it's close and Obama has topped a couple of polls there. But the general direction of Florida has been to Romney over the last couple of weeks. If Romney wins Florida somewhat easily, it will have been at the expense of a secondary state he desperately needs such as Virginia, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania.
Based on poll trends, Ohio seems a close Obama lean. Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are all leaning Obama too. Virginia, Colorado and Iowa are probably the truest toss-ups.
I think Virginia will be the early election night indicator. If Virginia goes Obama, he's going to win. If Romney takes Virginia, Florida and Ohio, it's going to be razor close.
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