Quote:
Originally Posted by larrymcg421
Rasmussen is 5 pts to the right of everyone in WI, 5 pts to the right of everyone in OH, 4 pts to the right of everyone in NH, and 4 pts to the right of everyone in CO. You don't see a pollster that consistently far to the left in several states and certainly not CBS/NYT or PPP.
It's not impossible that Rasmussen is just that much smarter than everyone else. If so, he'll be a huge star come Nov. 7th. Good luck to anyone betting on that.
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Gallup is actually to the right of Rasmussen on the national polls. I believe they are both approx. R+2/3.
As I mentioned previously, it is going to be very interesting to see how these work out. CBS/Quinnipac and PPP have been D+8 for many polls which is based upon the 2008 Election turnout. That was a historic high, and certainly the biggest margin in party turnout in the past 30 years. Relying on that sort of turnout again (combined with an abyssmal R turnout in 2008) is ridiculous. The Gallup and Rasmussen polls are in line with the 2004 election which was a high turnout election which was R+4.
The message is CBS/Quinnipac and PPP are banking on things being identical to 2008 (which I have serious questions about) whereas Gallup and Rasmussen are banking on something similar to 2004, but not as pronounced (which I think is more likely). The race is so flipping close though that the skew of the poll has a huge impact on who is winning where.