Quote:
Originally Posted by jbergey22
Johnny Peralta.
Over 21 percent K rate for the first time since 2007. His BABIP was 375 last year which was 60 points higher than his career mark which would explain how he was able to increase his average despite striking out quite a bit more.
I generally will defend most moves the cards make because they have proved themselves over and over but on this one I just still cant figure out. I think the Cards just gave 52 million to a 240-250 hitter that will hit 10 home runs and play average defense.
Some years calling him a good hitter is even a stretch. In 2012 with the Tigers he was where the rally ended.
Maybe they should move this guy to 3rd, keep Carpy at 2nd, and trade Wong for a shortstop.
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This is a good article about the overall value:
Jhonny Peralta and the Price of Nerd Favorites | FanGraphs Baseball
He's hit .303, .239 and .299 the past 3 seasons. His BABIB has been .374, .275 and .325. For his career, his BABIB is .315 and ave is .268 - that seems pretty reasonable for an expectation. He's also averaged around 16 HR if you prorate last season over the past few years. So, if the Cards can get an average of his last 3 seasons on D at SS (10 UZR), ave (.270) and HR (16) - I think they will be pretty pleased. He had a 3.6 WAR last season and missed 50 games. A 3-4 WAR SS would be a massive improvement over Kozma.
In terms of money, Carp ($11 M), Beltran ($13 M), Furcal ($7 M), Mujica ($3 M) and Westbrook ($9 M) are all off the books. Add in the $6 mil raise for Wainwright and the Peralta contract and you are still about $25 mil under what they spent last year - esp when you count the money saved in the Freese trade. So, odds are this move isn't going to hurt them the next few years in terms of keeping their current young players.