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Someone mentioned above all of the variables. This is where having smart defensive players comes in. A ball is hit on a rope to the third baseman? Throw it home and prevent the run. The 8th place hitter hits a routine grounder to SS, a slow catcher is on third and the pitcher due up next? throw it home and get the out.
Situation is everything on that play. 90% of the time, the best play is to get the double play and concede the run.
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