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Old 05-12-2014, 06:20 PM   #15
whomario
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Will be an interesting group, especially since the german team has a lot more question marks than people might realize.

Lots of players had disapointing or injury riddled seasons.

short by-position analysis:

Goal: Manuel Neuer (FC Bayern München), Roman Weidenfeller (Borussia Dortmund), Ron-Robert Zieler (Hannover 96)

No problems here and Löw even went out of his way and included Weidenfeller after years of ignoring him. Neuer is the clear starter and a Top 3 keeper in the world, Weidenfeller a very capable backup.


Defense:
Jérôme Boateng, Philipp Lahm (beide FC Bayern München), Erik Durm, Kevin Großkreutz, Mats Hummels, Marcel Schmelzer (alle Borussia Dortmund), Matthias Ginter (SC Freiburg), Benedikt Höwedes (Schalke 04), Marcell Jansen (Hamburger SV), Per Mertesacker (FC Arsenal), Shkodran Mustafi (Sampdoria Genua)

lots of multi-position players in that group, will be interesting how many cuts Löw will make here. Very likely to be cut are Mustafi and Durm. A lot depends on Lahm. Is he going to play Right Back or move up into midfield as he´s done most of the season with Bayern ? If he moves up, there will be an additional Full Back (or 2) given a roster spot.

The german public always bemoans the lack of quality Full backs, but imo it is not as bad as it is made out to be. No perfect choices, but some decent options. As said, lots of versatility. Großkreutz can play on both sides (and at AML and in a pinch at DM/CM), Boateng can move out to either side. From Midfield, Lars Bender could move back into the Full Back role (started against Portugal at the last European championship). Ginter is a very interesting prospect, could make the roster over Höwedes.
On the left side there will be tough competition. Schmelzer seemed like the sure starter but had a tough season, Jansen had a crappy season but is possibly the "best on a good day" in the group (but those are few and far between). Then you have Großkreutz who could easily switch over here. Durm is the one with the least chance here even with the real nice season he had.
The Center Back pairing is very much up in the air, between Mertesacker, Boateng and Hummels. It is a tough choice to have to make, with Mertesacker adding leadership, Boateng much needed athelticism covering either of the others relative slowness and Hummels possibly being the best passing/playmaking Centre Back in the world.


Likely picking order:

RB: Lahm, Großkreutz, Boateng, Durm
CB: Mertesacker, Boateng, Hummels, Höwedes/Ginter, Mustafi
LB: Schmelzer/Großkreutz, Jansen, Durm


Midfield:

defensively/central:

Lars Bender (Bayer Leverkusen), Leon Goretzka (alle Schalke 04), Toni Kroos, Bastian Schweinsteiger (alle FC Bayern München), Sami Khedira (Real Madrid)

Philipp Lahm ???

Before the season, i´d have said that there were no issues at all here with filling the all important 2-man centre midfield. Now Schweinsteiger has had a so-so season and lots of injuries the last couple years, his heir-aparent (Ilkay Gündogan) is missing out with a back injury, Khedira just came back from a long time knee injury. Kroos is a player that Löw really likes, but pairing him with Schweinsteiger is problematic as both are no physical presence and lack athleticism. Lars Bender might just end up being the sure fire starter as he´s a good fit next to all other candidates with his versatility and box-to-box ability. If Khedira gets into shape, he would be my choice next to him. Lots of people are critical of him, but imo he does a lot of little things people often overlook (chases down lots of balls, really makes the field smaller for the oposition with his positioning and presence).
As you can see, there is actually some substance to the idea of starting Lahm here. I personally do not think it is a good move, though. Bender imo is a much better option here than any of the CBs replacing Lahm back there.
Goretzka has almost no shot at making the final roster, but has a very bright future. At 19 years old he allready featured prominently with 3rd placed Schalke. Will be a terrific box-to-box midfielder sooner rather than later.

offensively:

Julian Draxler, Max Meyer (alle Schalke 04), Mario Götze, Thomas Müller, (alle FC Bayern München), André Hahn (FC Augsburg), Mesut Özil, Lukas Podolski (beide FC Arsenal), Marco Reus (Borussia Dortmund), André Schürrle (FC Chelsea)

Very good area on paper, but as of now i still see a few issues with how the parts will fit together. Outside of Thomas Müller (imo the clear cut starter at AMR) none of the realistic options are good defensive players, which would be problematic if indeed Löw goes with a Schweinsteiger/Kroos pairing.
On the left wing, Reus will very likely be the starter after playing otherworldly for the last weeks of the season.
In the middle, Özil obviously had a terrible season but has long been a favourite of Löw.
Schürrle, Götze and Podolski are the next 3 in line i think. I think that Andre Hahn is a dark-horse candidate as he adds a different element. He is a straight up winger going vertically up the pitch, but also is very physical and has a knack for scoring.
Draxler is very talented, but does not do anything well enough to really add anything at this point and imo ought to stay home. Max Meyer is another immensely talented youngster whose time will come, but not yet. He would, however, make for a decent super-sub option with his 1:1 skills and agility against presumably tired defenses.

likely picking order:

AML: Reus, Podolski/Schürrle, Draxler
AMC: Özil, Götze/Reus, Kroos (who could slide up)
AMR: Müller, Götze, Schürrle


Attack:

Miroslav Klose (Lazio Rom), Kevin Volland (1899 Hoffenheim)

yeah, not exactly spoiled for choice. Mario Gomez does not get selected after basically missing all year. But why pick Klose then, who not only missed nearly as much time but is also ancient by modern football standards ? Well, because Gomez is always an awkward fit in the system even when fully healthy while Klose´s style of play is the absolute perfect fit. He is a decent goal scorer, adds some much needed aerial ability but is also a really good passer and opens up space moving horizontally. He is also a terrific defensive player for a striker who helps out deep in the own half. Also very important for the squad with his experience.
Volland
is a very talented young player, not even a full rime striker but played on the wing a lot for Hoffenheim. Very physical player with good ball skills, could be the solution for after the WC. Not 100% sure if he makes the team. Pretty sure that Löw would rather go with Götze/Özil as a "false nine" or slot in Müller/Podolski in a pinch than start Volland. Then it would make sense to give the spot to an additional midfielder. But it would be good for his development to train alongside Klose and soak up the atmosphere.
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Last edited by whomario : 05-12-2014 at 06:25 PM.
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