[Breeze]

State Meet Update - Bailey


Ok, following up on the events so far here is what I can gather:


Bailey is in an absolutely loaded age group, which will make it hard for her to even earn points. I did a bit if research to determine where she stands in the events in question. It's a difficult process because I need to eliminate the kids that are going to age up into the 13/14 group before State, but I also have to identify the 11 year olds that will be 12 in mid-February as well. After completing my research, I have an estimate on the Event Rank coming into the meet, listed next to the event. The rank is not the seed, as we'll have to wait and see who actually swims the event, but it gives us a good reference point for discussion and strategy.

On the first day, she was originally schedule to swim the following:

200 Mdly (2:27.39Y) - Ranked 23
200 Back (2:26.12Y) - Ranked 17
100 Fly (1:05.51Y) - Ranked 14

However, the plan for day 1 is still up in the air. Bailey, surprisingly, expressed disappointment at not being put in the 1000. She apparently wants to swim it, in order to drop the 2 seconds needed for a Sectionals Cut. Ironically, the coach really wanted to put her in that event, because he felt she could earn some points, but he remembered the impact it had on her last year and didn't want to push it. The two have talked and I believe, based on the fact that Bailey wants to swim the 1000, and she has a chance to earn points by swimming that event, that the coach will put her in it. Now, I'm not sure which event he'll drop. Bailey indicated that she should drop the 200 Back, but I'm not sure that is the right play. In the 200 Back, currently, she is about 4 seconds from 10th place (which is the last spot that actually earns points). That's a good bit of time, but at State it isn't unusual to see significant drops. Moreover, she only has 6 people between her and a top 10 finish. In the 200 IM, she's 23rd, and shes 5+ seconds from the 10th seed. I'm not sure what Coach Andy will do, we'll have to wait and see. Just for reference here is how she stacks up in the 1000 Free:

1000 Free (11:55.91) - Ranked 10


In Day 2 this is what we are looking at:


100 Back (1:07.32Y) - Ranked 20
50 Fly (29.71Y) - Ranked 19
400 Mdly (5:13.12Y) - Ranked 11

So, despite the fact Bailey is a REALLY good flyer, she's way out of it in the 50. It would take a monumental drop for her to even sniff the top 10. In the 400 IM though, she'll be in the B final (because the top 20 times regardless of age get to swim finals in the event). She also could make the top 10 here - it could all come down to her breaststroke leg, which is improving, just don't know if it has improved enough.

The last day Bailey has her best change to finish top 10. Here is the schedule:

100 Mdly (1:09.28Y) - Ranked 18
200 Fly (2:23.72Y) - Ranked 6
50 Back (31.82Y) - Ranked 27

Again, Bailey has a top 20 time in the 100 IM, but it won't be good enough to score. Her 200 fly, like the 400 IM will be swum at finals, and she should stay in the top 10. To earn a medal, she'd need to cut 3 full seconds to swim the same time as the girl seeded third (not counting any improvement that swimmer might have).

Note: The relays have not be added into this schedule yet, as we are awaiting official word, but Bailey is the top 12 year old on the team and will undoubtedly be swimming fly in both the medleys and probably leading off both of the free relays.