Quote:
Originally Posted by Galaril
Yeah this is the money shot from that "The floor on this deal approaches disastrous, if not nearly in the realm of, say, the Carl Crawford contract. If the Red Sox have bet wrong and Porcello is simply a mediocre 4.50 ERA pitcher, then they've essentially flushed $20 million down the drain for the next four years. That sort of pitcher can be had for, if not free, then near enough to it."
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Edinson Volquez got $10m/y, league average pitchers who can throw 200 IP get $10m/y+. The closest comp, Homer Bailey, got 6/$108 while giving up an arb year. Porcello was going to get PAID
Rick Porcello’s Upcoming Enormous Payday | FanGraphs Baseball
He's still 26 (younger than Jacob DeGrom, Brandon Workman, etc), has a career 4.30 ERA despite being rushed to the majors and playing in front of arguably the worst infield defense in the majors, and zero injury history. The money isn't going to be a steal, and there's always injury risk, but locking him up just for age 27-30 is amazing, even if he's "only" a 4.00 ERA guy, and not the 3.50 guy his FIP from the last 2 years indicates.
And because the comparison is inevitable, I'd rather have Jon Lester this year, I think it's a toss-up between the two for the next few years, but I'm ecstatic we're not committed to paying Jon Lester $50m in 2020/21. And I also think the Red Sox willingness to go as high as they did on the yearly $ is directly related to Lester turning down 4/$70 last year at this time, and how badly low-balling him backfired.