I probably just did the math for your pace on the half in my head wrong
For my last marathon, I ended up doing it 1 minute 11 seconds per mile over my half time. So for me, I'm not even doing as well as the average I guess!
I actually have a marathon coming up this Sunday, I haven't written much about it on here this winter as it has been a fairly frustrating training season for me. The 1 1/2 months - 2 months of no or light activity really crushed me from an encouragement point of view. The worse part is that I actually didn't change my eating, so lack of almost any activity caused me to gain 20 pounds too.
Since then, I've tried to bust my butt all winter to get my fitness back, and I've lost about 10 pounds of that back since then (which is surprisingly hard during marathon training to lose weight). I think for this marathon I'm in close to the same fitness level as my last marathon now (CTL score is 122 right now, was 117 for my first marathon and 129 for my last one, so I guess somewhere in between the two).
Unfortunately the 10 pounds heavier suggests an extra 10 minutes it will take me to run this one though. I am going to try to still PR though, but by running it smarter this time and see if I can avoid falling apart at the end.
Anything under 4:15 will make me happy I suppose, and I'll spend the next 5 months getting my act back together too fully before the next one.