Quote:
Originally Posted by revrew
Not true.
Going back and looking at the early polls in previous elections, John McCain was nowheresville in the polls at this point, but he went on and won the GOP nomination. Huckabee and Santorum, similarly, were less than 3% at this point in the years they both finished #2 for the nomination.
We deal with this all the time in Iowa. The rest of the country has election "years," we have election cycles that run 2-3 years. While the rest of the country is still sleeping on the election, we're already meeting, interviewing, etc.
And I can tell you right now that America is getting royally screwed by this new debate process. There are some in that top 10 who are not serious candidates (not talking about Trump, here. To be honest, I think he's the current odds favorite to win the presidency), and there is at least 1 candidate cut out by this idiotic national poll criterion who will finish top 3 in Iowa, and should Ted Cruz falter, could finish top 2 for the nomination nationally.
Fox/RNC are pissing on America right now and telling you it's just raining.
|
I see this debate as less important. The ground game in Iowa and New Hampshire should be everyone's focus right now. Getting those key local endorsements, getting known.
Sure, the debate is a piece of getting known. It's an opportunity. But for what? A memorable one-liner? Not in a room of ten type-As battling for air time.
You're out on the ground, so you know things I can only guess about, but I just don't see Trump getting much stronger. Can you really have an entire candidacy revolving around "I'm not a politician!"
Trump would have to be Superman to gain from the debate. We already expect him to command the stage and make those politically incorrect comments that force Ozzy Osbourne's children out of their cozy comfort zone.
Where does he go from here? At what point can he pivot from showing people what's wrong with the system to providing people with hope that he's the guy who can fix it? He's peaking too early and he's too old and too cranky to pivot and stay in this, long-term.