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There are new poll releases today for Iowa and New Hampshire.
Based on the national polling, the narrative that Trump had a sudden spike to about 30% and has dropped back below 20% is compelling (obviously, not certain).
People were intrigued. They listened to him. They didn't really like him. Given who Trump is, this was inevitable.
In theory, we like the idea of a complete outsider who sets the political world on its collective ear. In practice, it takes years of being an insider to do this without sounding like an ass.
The true art is in convincing people you're an outsider while you've spent years being a politician. Obama captured that perfectly. Others have tried and failed.
Trump was always a highly combustible object in his presidential dabbles. It's time to move forward.
Clearly, Walker has lost his traction. That surprises me, but it can happen to governors. When the field is relatively weak, a lack of magnetism isn't a bad thing. Walker did well in Wisconsin and won some tough races in a blue state.
But when he is up there with the varsity, he has nothing to say that defines him. He is more a product of his own story than he is a phenomenon. He doesn't inspire. He'll have some time to turn this around, because his sense of politics is decent for Republicans (I know, to Democrats his strong anti-union posture is a deal-breaker).
But my sense is that he won't rebound much. I thought he would win this race until I watched the debate last week. He still might, but he has to bring a much better game than he has so far.
The rest of the field is still juggling. Fiorina was promoted to the varsity. Cruz and Carson are essentially tied in the right-wing vote. Santorum (2012's eventual winner of that demographic) isn't going to compete. Perry is Perry - the knock on him has always been that he's not smart enough to do this. Rubio and Bush are battling for the more moderate vote, while Christie isn't gaining. Kasich is somewhere in the middle and could have a moment, though he needs a lot of polish. Paul and Huckabee have their followers, but a low ceiling.
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