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Brian Swartz · 08-19-2015, 05:35 AM

2015: A Synopsis

Here I will take a look at the present human reality in a few important sectors, before moving on with the timeline. This is intended to highlight important realities and/or trends that are shaping our collective future.

Global Space Programs

At the present moment in history, global spending on space programs is in the vicinity of 40-45 billion annually; this is about 0.05% of the world's wealth. While projects such as the New Horizon probe and the International Space Station are still ongoing, the idea of space travel no longer captures the imagination of the public in general. There is still progress and exploration being made, new discoveries by orbital telescopes and so on, but relatively speaking these are quite marginal advances.

The Decline of the Nation-State

I do not here mean that the nation-state is in any sense in danger of imminently vanishing as the dominant political unit, but merely that it's importance is in decline. As the Second Wave recedes and the Third Wave advances, nationalism is gradually of less importance and other ideologies(religious, sociological, etc.) as well as local and regional allegiances are becoming more central. Ideas, not location, are more and more the driving force of geopolitical developments. Also gaining in power are megacorporations, which now control one-seventh of the world's economic influence(and rising).

Scarcity of Cheap Resources

It has always been inevitable that the Second Wave could last only so long, based as it was and is on cheap non-renewable resources. The pain of depleting such resources has just begun to be felt over the past couple of decades. Demand for oil, for example, continues to grow particularly in developing countries such as India. On the supply side, production continues to increase, but according to most industry experts it is nearing although not quite yet at it's apex(aka 'peak oil'). Solar, wind, and hydroelectric power is used more than ever before but is barely more than a drop in the bucket at this point though use is expanding, just not nearly fast enough. Hybrid vehicles are increasing their small share in the automobile market but again this is a slow change and one that only has a relatively minor impact on demand. Natural gas and other important resources are still some decades at least away from their peak of production, but the important factor here is that regardless of when the tipping point comes, it cannot be avoided completely, only delayed.

International Co-operation on Massive Ventures

The International Space Station, Large Hadron Collider, and ITER/JET reactors are prominent examples of a trend towards nations pooling their resources in the pursuit of important scientific advances and developments.

The Rise of Automation

As the popular YouTube video 'Humans Need Not Apply' examines, technological advancement is nearing the cusp of eliminating the need for humans in many fields. The ATM is a staple of modern society and not all that new, but in the service industry similar applications are on their way, some about to be deployed. Google and other companies are testing 'self-driven' vehicles, with a modest degree of success. In almost every imaginable industry, it is feasible if in most cases not yet practical than the coming decades will yield automated, computerized and/or robotic replacements for human labor.

Demands of Public Welfare

Compared to a century ago, the average work week in developed nations has declined by about a third, allowing for more leisure time. This in turn has fueled an increased demand for public assistance to support an ever-increasing standard of living. Different nations operating under varying political systems and philosophies have attacked this problem in different ways, but the pressure will both be alleviated and increased by increased automation and general technological advance. For example, medical technology allows increased lifespans greatly increasing medical costs, while increased use of robotics allows for many products to be made more inexpensively.

From a space and science standpoint, a key question is how much support and investment will be available for those pursuits with the free citizens of major nations continuing to require the lion's share of public funding?

Conceivably one could continue almost indefinitely with such observations, but I think these are sufficient to set the stage.

08-19-2015, 05:35 AM	#3
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	2015: A Synopsis Here I will take a look at the present human reality in a few important sectors, before moving on with the timeline. This is intended to highlight important realities and/or trends that are shaping our collective future. Global Space Programs At the present moment in history, global spending on space programs is in the vicinity of 40-45 billion annually; this is about 0.05% of the world's wealth. While projects such as the New Horizon probe and the International Space Station are still ongoing, the idea of space travel no longer captures the imagination of the public in general. There is still progress and exploration being made, new discoveries by orbital telescopes and so on, but relatively speaking these are quite marginal advances. The Decline of the Nation-State I do not here mean that the nation-state is in any sense in danger of imminently vanishing as the dominant political unit, but merely that it's importance is in decline. As the Second Wave recedes and the Third Wave advances, nationalism is gradually of less importance and other ideologies(religious, sociological, etc.) as well as local and regional allegiances are becoming more central. Ideas, not location, are more and more the driving force of geopolitical developments. Also gaining in power are megacorporations, which now control one-seventh of the world's economic influence(and rising). Scarcity of Cheap Resources It has always been inevitable that the Second Wave could last only so long, based as it was and is on cheap non-renewable resources. The pain of depleting such resources has just begun to be felt over the past couple of decades. Demand for oil, for example, continues to grow particularly in developing countries such as India. On the supply side, production continues to increase, but according to most industry experts it is nearing although not quite yet at it's apex(aka 'peak oil'). Solar, wind, and hydroelectric power is used more than ever before but is barely more than a drop in the bucket at this point though use is expanding, just not nearly fast enough. Hybrid vehicles are increasing their small share in the automobile market but again this is a slow change and one that only has a relatively minor impact on demand. Natural gas and other important resources are still some decades at least away from their peak of production, but the important factor here is that regardless of when the tipping point comes, it cannot be avoided completely, only delayed. International Co-operation on Massive Ventures The International Space Station, Large Hadron Collider, and ITER/JET reactors are prominent examples of a trend towards nations pooling their resources in the pursuit of important scientific advances and developments. The Rise of Automation As the popular YouTube video 'Humans Need Not Apply' examines, technological advancement is nearing the cusp of eliminating the need for humans in many fields. The ATM is a staple of modern society and not all that new, but in the service industry similar applications are on their way, some about to be deployed. Google and other companies are testing 'self-driven' vehicles, with a modest degree of success. In almost every imaginable industry, it is feasible if in most cases not yet practical than the coming decades will yield automated, computerized and/or robotic replacements for human labor. Demands of Public Welfare Compared to a century ago, the average work week in developed nations has declined by about a third, allowing for more leisure time. This in turn has fueled an increased demand for public assistance to support an ever-increasing standard of living. Different nations operating under varying political systems and philosophies have attacked this problem in different ways, but the pressure will both be alleviated and increased by increased automation and general technological advance. For example, medical technology allows increased lifespans greatly increasing medical costs, while increased use of robotics allows for many products to be made more inexpensively. From a space and science standpoint, a key question is how much support and investment will be available for those pursuits with the free citizens of major nations continuing to require the lion's share of public funding? Conceivably one could continue almost indefinitely with such observations, but I think these are sufficient to set the stage.