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The National Basketball Report: 1956-57 Season Preview

As we said a few months ago, the times are changing.


New programs are rising up against the old guard, those that have stood their ground for the last four seasons. The hotbed of basketball is heading west, then further west. The PCC owns our own title of top conference this year, with the ACC trailing not far behind.


You'll also notice a change in our own preview. With the increasing presence of statistics and the analytical element, we introduced the NBR Analytics Bureau in our Too Early issue. They have been a brilliant presence here at the Agency, giving depth and reason, as well as push-back, to what we see with our eyes, and feel with our instinct. To say that they add to our reports is like saying freshly fallen snow adds to Christmas dawn.

It is a universal believe, and needs no more words.

You will find the Analytics Report at the conclusion of each conference preview.

We all hope you enjoy.


Preseason Top Twenty
1. Kansas State
2. North Carolina State
3. Kansas
4. Kentucky
5. Duquesne
6. North Carolina
7. Indiana
8. Washington
9. Bradley
10. Duke
11. Arkansas
12. California
13. Iowa
14. West Virginia
15. Seattle
16. Southern Cal
17. Dayton
18. San Francisco
19. Villanova
20. Notre Dame


National Player of the Year: G John Hildebrand, West Virginia
National Newcomer of the Year: C Mario Poe, Columbia


Preseason All-America Team
G: John Hildebrand, West Virginia (Sr)
G: Billy Jacob, Kansas State (Sr)
F: Dennis Sawicki, North Carolina (Jr)
F: Curt Davis, Kentucky (Jr)
C: Arlon Rahn, Kansas (So)


G: Danny Fenton, Washington (Sr)
G: Elijah Davis, Clemson (Sr)
F: Arthur Brodie, Oregon State (Jr*)
F: Richard Bulger, Bradley (Sr*)
C: Nickolas Parker, Tennessee Tech (Jr)


Atlantic Coast Conference (Conference Rank: 2)
1) North Carolina State 2) North Carolina 3) Duke
Sleeper: Maryland
Preseason Player of the Year: F Dennis Sawicki, North Carolina
Preseason Newcomer of the Year: C Chris Stoner, North Carolina
Rising: Virginia
Falling: Clemson
Best Backcourt: North Carolina
Best Frontcourt: North Carolina State
Best Offense: Duke
Best Defense: North Carolina
Best Bench: North Carolina State
Best Scorer: G Elijah Davis, Clemson
Best Passer: G Archie Means, North Carolina
Best Rebounder: C John Rossi, North Carolina State
Best Defender: C John Rossi, North Carolina
Best Sixth Man: G Ray Griffin, Duke
Best (Current) Professional Prospect: F Howard Clower, Maryland
NCAA Teams: North Carolina State, North Carolina, Duke
NIT Teams: Maryland, Virginia
Preseason All-Conference Team
G: Elijah Davis, Clemson (Sr)
G: Lane McClary, Duke (Sr)
F: Dennis Sawicki, North Carolina (Jr)
F: Louis Bergeron, North Carolina State (So*)
C: John Rossi, North Carolina State (Sr*)
Synopsis: With the fall of Clemson, order is seemingly restored to the ACC. North Carolina State purposely sacrificed last year for this season, and they look the part of a national championship contender. North Carolina and Duke will not let them off easily, of course. Either would make a worthy champion, both of the conference, and of the nation. Virginia and Maryland should provide suitable resistance to Tobacco Road, but in the end, it comes down to the dynamic duo of Duke, the veterans of North Carolina, or the long-term vision of the Wolfpack.


Analytics
Reputation: 2nd(64.6)
Talent: 1st(4.15)
Recruiting: 6th(2.90)


No conference can claim to be in a better position than the ACC, but it's a precarious one. It's a top-heavy league, but one with an impressive power structure. There are six programs that are really head-and-shoulders above the rest going forward and three of them are here. N.C. State is the head of the snake but North Carolina and Duke appear neck-and-neck as major national powers behind them. Virginia, Wake Forest, and South Carolina provide a solid middle as well. Unfortunately, Clemson has fallen off a cliff and Maryland seems to be following them over the edge as well. This was also not a good year for the ACC in recruiting, to put it mildly; our assessment is that everyone except Virginia took a step backwards to one degree or another. Nobody will want any part of the Big 3 here for the next few seasons, but if things don't turn around they won't be able to hold their current status as probably the top conference in the nation.


Big 7 Conference (Conference Rank: 3)
1) Kansas State 2) Kansas 3) Colorado
Sleeper: Nebraska
Preseason Player of the Year: G Billy Jacob, Kansas State
Preseason Newcomer of the Year: G Irwin Lear, Kansas
Rising: Nebraska
Falling: Missouri
Best Backcourt: Kansas State
Best Frontcourt: Kansas
Best Offense: Kansas State
Best Defense: Kansas State
Best Bench: Kansas State
Best Scorer: G Billy Jacob, Kansas state
Best Passer: G Steven Burns, Kansas
Best Rebounder: F Chris Spratt, Iowa State
Best Defender: F Tommy Fritts, Kansas State
Best Sixth Man: G Normand Herbert, Kansas State
Best (Current) Professional Prospect: G David Gunter, Kansas State
NCAA Teams: Kansas State, Kansas
NIT Teams: Colorado
Preseason All-Conference Team
G: Billy Jacob, Kansas State (Sr)
G: David Gunter, Kansas State (Sr)
F: Tommy Fritts, Kansas State (Sr)
F: Erich Walton, Kansas State (Sr)
C: Arlon Rahn, Kansas (So)
Synopsis: In the Too Early piece, we discussed the ticking clock on Kansas State's legacy. They have reached the National Semifinals three straight seasons, and have nothing to show for it. Rather, the national title in two of those three years have gone to the Jayhawks, who seem to be able to expert brilliantly in March. The two are star-crossed once again, as the last of that incredible group that arrived in Manhattan four years ago play out the final act of their collegiate careers. Standing in their way is the Automarahn, the 7'1, 282 immovable object standing in the heart of Lawrence. Of course, there is plenty around Arlon Rahn...but he is the symbol of what Kansas State must go through (first), as they try to write a happy ending to the story of the last four years. Colorado, Nebraska, and Iowa State all have redeeming qualities that should endear themselves to those who select the NIT. But this, as it has been, is a two-horse race. It is, much like the last three years, one built for distance, not as a sprint.


Analytics
Reputation: 1st(65.6)
Talent: 4th(3.52)
Recruiting: 2nd(5.03)


One of the Kansas superpowers has played in the national title game for the past three years, with the Jayhawks winning both of theirs while the Wildcats lost to Bradley in the middle of that. It's no wonder that popular opinion has the Big 7 as the best around with those kind of results. Colorado and Iowa State provide a very solid second tier, but we are far less impressed with Missouri, Nebraska, and Oklahoma. The Tigers in particular have all the appearance of a ship sinking, and doing so pretty quickly. We think Kansas has gained the upper hand over their in-state rivals, and figures to edge them out as the top program not just here but anywhere. The weakness of the bottom three schools though will eventually rob the Big 7 of some of it's luster if it continues.


Big Ten Conference (Conference Rank: 4)
1) Indiana 2) Iowa 3) Michigan State
Sleeper: Illinois
Preseason Player of the Year: F Cyril Clancy, Michigan State
Preseason Newcomer of the Year: C Columbus Dotson, Iowa
Rising: Ohio State
Falling: Northwestern
Best Backcourt: Iowa
Best Frontcourt: Indiana
Best Offense: Indiana
Best Defense: Indiana
Best Bench: Indiana
Best Scorer: G Des Phillips, Indiana
Best Passer: G Chet Terrazas, Iowa
Best Rebounder: F Merv Erickson, Indiana
Best Defender: C Octavio Broussard, Indiana
Best Sixth Man: G Paul Williams, Iowa
Best (Current) Professional Prospect: C Octavio Broussard, Indiana
NCAA Teams: Indiana, Iowa
NIT Teams: Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue
Preseason All-Conference Team
G: Des Phillips, Indiana (So)
G: Chet Terrazas, Iowa (Sr)
F: Cyril Clancy, Michigan State (Sr)
F: Joshua Stripling, Northwestern (So)
C: Octavio Broussard, Indiana (Sr)
Synopsis: The Hoosiers are very vulnerable. only one-and-a-half starters return (Erickson started 14 games in his career). Iowa is coming on strong, and while nobody else in the conference is a terrible threat to take the title, Indiana has to feel as insecure as possible about repeating for the fourth time. Iowa, behind their stellar backcourt, will pressure Indiana's young guards. Michigan State has a solid starting group, though their bench lends itself to question. Illinois has regressed, but they have enough talent to beat anyone, anytime. The rest of the Big Ten have major holes, but there is more talent in the league than there ever has. Watch Ohio State closely; they have a lot of youth, a wealth of potential, and have the feel of a sleeping giant.
Analytics
Reputation: 3rd(63.9)
Talent: 3rd(3.64)
Recruiting: 3rd(4.75)


The Big Ten is definitely an elite conference, but it is not quite as good as it thinks it is or as public opinion thinks it is, at least not yet. There's no question that Indiana has as bright a future as any program in the country. Iowa and Illinois are an over-rated second tier though: they have only one NCAA win in the last three years between them, and while they are still better than the rest of the conference, the gap between them and the Hoosiers is much greater than commonly thought. Gradually rising to catch them is Ohio State, followed closely by Michigan State and Purdue. Michigan is sort of in no-man's land by themselves, not as good as that trio but well ahead of Northwestern and Wisconsin. Minnesota has collapsed; few schools in the country have less talent than the Gophers and we expect them to be a doormat for at least a while.

While Illinois and Iowa are an exception, most of the conference was strengthened in the recruiting haul this year. As a whole, the Big Ten was not far behind the Big 7 and PCC, and far ahead of everyone else in terms of incoming prospects. This is the continuation of a trend the last few years that has seen increasing numbers of highly regarded players joining the league, and there's no question the conference is getting better. In the next few years, the overall product should match it's outsized reputation.


Border Conference (Conference Rank: 16)
1) Arizona 2) Texas Western 3) Arizona State
Sleeper: None
Preseason Player of the Year: G Silvio Flores, Texas Western
Preseason Newcomer of the Year: G Len Smith, Arizona
Rising: Texas Western
Falling: Arizona State
Best Backcourt: Texas Western
Best Frontcourt: Arizona
Best Offense: Arizona
Best Defense: Arizona State
Best Bench: Texas Western
Best Scorer: G Elden Trull, Arizona State
Best Passer: G Robert Williams, Texas Western
Best Rebounder: F Roland Dabney, Texas Western
Best Defender: G Hayden Murray, Arizona State
Best Sixth Man: G Hayden Murray, Arizona State
Best (Current) Professional Prospect: G Elden Trull, Arizona State
NCAA Teams: Arizona State
NIT Teams: None
Preseason All-Conference Team
G: Silvio Flores, Texas Western (Jr)
G: Elden Trull, Arizona State (Sr*)
F: Roland Dabney, Texas Western (Sr)
F: Jonathan Moeller, Arizona (So)
C: Kris Jensen, Arizona State (Sr)
Synopsis: The conference has fallen over the past two seasons, but the top three--Arizona State, Texas Western, and Arizona--remain large within the league parameters. The Miners can steal this behind their backcourt...but the Sun Devils, with their stout defense, should be able to run away with things.


Analytics
Reputation: 18th(27.8)
Talent: 15th(1.87)
Recruiting: 13th(2.14)


The BIAA is definitely in the lowest tier of conferences, but it is somewhat under-rated. When you are thought of as dead last, there is nowhere to go but up. Arizona is the best-positioned going forward, with Arizona State looking ready to surpass distintegrating Texas Western in the runner-up position. However, this is a conference that is very competitive, and nobody is very good -- for the most part it's looking like a year-to-year scramble with no clear hierarchy behind Arizona's small advantage at the top. There isn't a school here that I would mention as definitely being in the top half nationwide. It was a pretty good recruiting year, and it's possible the BIAA may drag itself somewhat up the chain as the years progress.


Ivy Group (Conference Rank: 8)
1) Columbia 2) Dartmouth 3) Princeton
Sleeper: Pennsylvania
Preseason Player of the Year: F Sonny Freeman, Dartmouth
Preseason Newcomer of the Year: C Mario Poe, Columbia
Rising: Brown
Falling: Harvard
Best Backcourt: Princeton
Best Frontcourt: Columbia
Best Offense: Dartmouth
Best Defense: Pennsylvania
Best Bench: Columbia
Best Scorer: F Sonny Freeman, Dartmouth
Best Passer: G Stephen Martin, Cornell
Best Rebounder: C Marvin Maroney, Harvard
Best Defender: C Havel Richter, Yale
Best Sixth Man: G Marquis Theriot, Yale
Best (Current) Professional Prospect: G James Paradis, Yale
NCAA Teams: Columbia
NIT Teams: Dartmouth
Preseason All-Conference Team
G: James Paradis, Yale (Sr)
G: Justin Root, Columbia (Sr)
F: Sonny Freeman, Dartmouth (Jr)
F: Charlie Smith, Dartmouth (Jr)
C: Mario Poe, Columbia (Fr)
Synopsis: The gap between Columbia and the rest of the Ivy is closing. The Lions, which enjoyed ranked status last year, could again this season. The cause of this result would be Mario Poe dominating the Group. The freshman is quite capable of that. The Indians, with their talented forwards in Freeman and Smith, along with Roddy McFall at the point, will be a severe threat to the Lions' sustainted dominance. We wrote that last year, and truth be told, the Indians nearly knocked off the Lions. Princeton will be a tough out, while Penn will use this season to prepare for the next two, when they could somehow be the kings of the conference. The Ivy is one of the most heated, highly-contested conferences in the nation. This year will be no different.


Analytics
Reputation: 14th(30.8)
Talent: T-11th(2.05)
Recruiting: 8th(2.48)


It's hard to have stringent admission standards like the Ivy schools do and not have a bit of an arrogant chip on your shoulder, but they don't really seem to try to resist the tendency much. Collectively they are among the best of the bottom of the barrel, which is fairly impressive given the conference's requirements for prospective students. Three-time defending champion Columbia is the unquestioned king of the hill, and they will probably stay there but it is no longer a sure thing. They have a massive advantadge in financial resources, but we actually like Dartmouth's collection of players a little bitter over th next few years and Brown's every bit as well with Penn not far behind. That quartet appears to be the new power structure. Princeton appears to be in chaos with their third coach in as many years, with Yale close behind them, Harvard just unable to attract much real talent and Cornell having decided they basically don't care about anything anymore at the bottom. Even with that, it appears that the Ivy will likely continue to improve, at least somewhat, overall in the coming years. There are a number of effective coaches here. Whether they can do enough to escape their spot among college basketball's also-rans is uncertain though.


Metro Conference (Conference Rank: 15)
1) St. John's 2) St. John's JVs 3) NYU
Sleeper: None
Preseason Player of the Year: C Dennis Shelby, St. John's
Preseason Newcomer of the Year: G Melvin Murray, St. John's
Rising: CCNY
Falling: Fordham
Best Backcourt: St. John's
Best Frontcourt: St. John's
Best Offense: St. John's
Best Defense: St. John's
Best Bench: St. John's
Best Scorer: G Justin Drummond, NYU
Best Passer: G Andres Peden, CCNY
Best Rebounder: F Kelvin Denton, St. John's
Best Defender: F Kelvin Denton, St. John's
Best Sixth Man: F Kelvin Denton, St. John's
Best (Current) Professional Prospect: F Veniamin Alexeev, St. John's
NCAA Teams: St. John's
NIT Teams: None
Preseason All-Conference Team
G: Justin Drummond, NYU (Jr)
G: Andres Peden, CCYU (Jr)
F: Kelvin Denton, St. John's (Jr*)
F: Veniamin Alexeev, St. John's (Sr)
C: Dennis Shelby, St. John's (Jr*)
Synopsis: It's the Johnnies, then their backups, then everyone else. The City has various parts around it that are appealing, and City games are always fun to watch for the rivalry. But there is no debate here. The Johnnies are 17-1 in conference play since its formation, and will be 23-1 at the end of this year. They're also young...we don't expect them to contend nationally, but they have enough games with national issue that, with the right teaching from those games, they can be on the radar next season.


Analytics
Reputation: 15th(30.4)
Talent: 18th(1.83)
Recruiting: 14th(2.14)


This here is as bad as it gets in the sport today. St. John's has a solid team, though not quite as good as you'd expect. The rest of the Metro flat-out stinks. NYU is considered a credible number two, which they are minus the term 'credible', as they are barely better than the rest of the drek here. It is not a conference without potential to improve; there is a lot of homegrown talent in New York, but right now most of it is poached by others. Brooklyn and Manhattan appear to be getting a little better, but the coaching is pretty awful on balance in the league and until that changes, no major improvements are anticipated.


Mid-American Conference (Conference Rank: 12)
1) Toledo 2) Kent State 3) Marshall
Sleeper: Miami-Ohio
Preseason Player of the Year: F Mike Gehring, Kent State
Preseason Newcomer of the Year: G Marco Goldman, Western Michigan
Rising: Bowling Green
Falling: Miami-Ohio
Best Backcourt: Toledo
Best Frontcourt: Toledo
Best Offense: Toledo
Best Defense: Toledo
Best Bench: Toledo
Best Scorer: G Darnell Carrington, Kent State
Best Passer: G Don Larson, Western Michigan
Best Rebounder: F Mike Gehring, Toledo
Best Defender: F Gordon Barron, Toledo
Best Sixth Man: G Brian Schmaranzer, Toledo
Best (Current) Professional Prospect: F Mike Gehring, Kent State
NCAA Teams: Toledo
NIT Teams: Kent State
Preseason All-Conference Team
G: Timmy Torre, Toledo (Jr)
G: MIchael Ashe, Marshall (Sr)
F: Mike Gehring, Kent State (Sr)
F: Gordon Barron, Toledo (Sr*)
C: Irvin Sullivan, Bowling Green (Jr)
Synopsis: Toledo could go oh-fer this season, and it is doubtful anyone would hold it against them. All they did is deliver the greatest upset in sports history, knocking off Indiana in the first round of the NCAA last season. Most of that group is gone, but a few remain. Add in the fact that the majority of the MAC is young, and the Rockets should be able to get back to the NCAA Tournament once again.


Analytics
Reputation: 13th(30.9)
Talent: 13th(2.01)
Recruiting: 16th(2.00)


The Mid-American's chance to be something other than an afterthought has long rested with standard-bearers Toledo. Unfortunately, the Rockets haven't brought in any significant talent lately, and in another year or two they may not be much better than the rest here. Last year's upset of Indiana and eventually run to the Elite Eight got them a lot of deserved attention, but it won't last unless they massively upgrade their recruiting effectiveness. Behind them, it's a highly competitive mess of barely-competent programs, with the exception of Ohio who is a couple steps behind the rest.


Missouri Valley Conference (Conference Rank: 6)
1) Bradley 2) Saint Louis 3) Oklahoma A&M
Sleeper: Wichita Municipal
Preseason Player of the Year: G Michael Laguna, Saint Louis
Preseason Newcomer of the Year: G James Gomez, Wichita Municipal
Rising: Wichita Municipal
Falling: Houston
Best Backcourt: Saint Louis
Best Frontcourt: Bradley
Best Offense: Bradley
Best Defense: Bradley
Best Bench: Bradley
Best Scorer: G Dionisio Vega, Bradley
Best Passer: G Jody Spring, Saint Louis
Best Rebounder: F Felix Holzer, Bradley
Best Defender: F Richard Bulger, Bradley
Best Sixth Man: G Max Cruse, Bradley
Best (Current) Professional Prospect: C James Calvo, Bradley
NCAA Teams: Bradley, Saint Louis
NIT Teams: Oklahoma A&M
Preseason All-Conference Team
G: Dionisio Vega, Bradley (Jr)
G: Michael Laguna, Saint Louis (Sr)
F: Richard Bulger, Bradley (Sr*)
F: Loyd Gardiner, Detroit Mercy (Jr)
C: James Calvo, Bradley (Sr*)
Synopsis: We thought Bradley would drop off after entering a conference, but they have made the transition from independent seamlessly. This year's team is decidedly on the second tier of national contenders; however, they are on the list of national contenders. Vega, Calvo and Bulger led an excellent, well-rounded team. Max Cruse is the next star at Bradley, and he should start to take off as the season continues. The Billikens have the offense, but their defense will be their ultimate shortcoming. Laguna is a star who needs to begin proving he can make it at the next level. The Cowboys need their overhyped backcourt of Witcher and O'Bryant to begin producing if they are going to be taken seriously. The rest of the conference is filler.


Analytics
Reputation: 7th(47.4)
Talent: 7th(2.59)
Recruiting: 9th(2.32)


It seems everything is changing in the MVC these days. After having Bradley, one of the top programs in the nation, join a couple years back, now Drake expands the conference to eight this year. After Bradley, Oklahoma A&M and Saint Louis are strong programs as well, but the former is rising a bit while the Billikens are crashing hard. Tulsa stinks and is getting worse, despite their middling reputation as well, and Detroit Mercy is doing nothing whatsoever at all. Houston is on the rise and could well soon be the #3 team in the MVC, with Municipal University of Wichita and Drake also looking to improve. Nobody around here is standing pat, it seems the whole conference is in an upheaval, either rising or falling. A new status quo seems unlikely to be found anytime soon.