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Old 11-23-2015, 07:23 PM   #307
muns
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Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Baltimore MD
The National Basketball Report
1956-57 NCAA Tournament Preview

There are many storylines heading into this year’s NCAA Tournament. We have seen surprises, disappointments, amazing performances, and incredible games.

And now, we are down to the final 31 games.

The NCAA Tournament.

We will not hold the suspense any further. There is a lot to read.

West Region

1) Kansas State (28-1, Big 7 Champ) vs 8) Dartmouth (15-13, Ivy Champ)

Kansas State has a veteran team; they start five seniors and their first two players off the bench are juniors. They have depth and star power. The starting backcourt of David Gunter and Billy Jacob are finally professionally eligible, and they are viewed as the top two players in the upcoming class. Erich Walton, the team’s power forward, is fourth. Tommy Fritts, the team’s jack-of-all-trades small forward, is fifth. Joe Delrio, who gets no publicity whatsoever, is the ninth-best prospect in the junior class.

They do not play with the attitude one may anticipate with such expectation; they are royalty, but roll their sleeves on defense with the common peasant. Their top billing in opponent scoring exemplifies that. They simply dislike to be scored upon, and do what it takes to prevent that from happening. Most of the time, it is a combination of talent and hustle. In short, this is a top-flight team that plays like they are fighting for the last crumb at dinner. Their record over Kansas in the last four seasons, a two-time NCAA champion, is 8-2. Do you think they do not have pride?

Dartmouth, meanwhile, managed to pull themselves out of their Dartmouth-created hole with a pair of wins in the final week of the regular season. Their tie with Penn dissipated, and the Indians won the Ivy Group. They have a solid starting group, revolving around forwards Sonny Freeman (17.5 ppg, 8.1 rpg) and Charlie Smith (16.7 ppg, 7.7 rpg). Both have scored over 1300 points in their careers, and both return next season.

We have two issues with the team: first, starting center Marin Dutries, the only designated center on the team, will miss the game with an injury. It is hard to beat Kansas State’s 6’8, 6’8, 6’9 front line with your only post player out. Second, the bench is barely Ivy Group muster. Playing the top ten of this roster, without one of your top five, is a miracle in hope.

It does require noting that this is not the first meeting between these two this season. Dartmouth traveled to K-State on 12.22, losing 73-65. Smith (18 points, 7 boards) and Freeman (13 pts, 11 reb) had little help, mainly from Les Cox (10 pts, 5 reb, 3 ast). Jacob (24-6-5) and Gunter (13-5-2) led Kansas State to the win.

Pick: Kansas State by 18. We think the Indians, behind their two stars in Smith and Freeman, will keep it close. But the Jayhawks, behind their overall depth and experience (three national semis, one title loss) will pull away.


4) Duke (22-9, At Large) vs 5) Oregon (21-9, At Large)

The Blue Devils are a mystery, quite honestly. They score at will at times, but decidedly do not like defense. They are an okay rebounding team, force turnovers and do not give up their own, shoot well, but let others do, too. In short, this team likes the up-tempo route for its games.

It will be hard to do that without three key players in their rotation. Oakley and Jackson will be out for the game. Griffin, who has started ten games at the point in Oakley’s absence, will be back, but may not be game-ready. Without their top two point guards, the team may have to turn to Lane McClary to run the offense; that is fine, as he averaged 5.1 assists a game as it is. But Charlie Rodriguez, a little-used redshirt freshman guard, may have to step into a bigger role. The Blue Devils are terribly light at guard without Griffin and Jackson. Assuming Griffin is at 75% for gametime is fine, but without Jackson, they’ll be severely hampered. Rodriguez is the man who has to step into that role, and thrive. Stefan Jordan (14.1 ppg), Jonathan Fleenor (13.9 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 2.5 apg) and McClary (12.3 ppg, 6.1 apg) can handle the bulk of the work. Rodriguez can play defense, find his spots, and produce when it works in the context of the offense. Or, he can splash onto the scene, and be Duke’s new star.

Oregon is almost a carbon copy of Duke. They love to score, don’t care if they’re scored upon, and do not turn it over as much. The two differences in their play is that Oregon rebounds better (+6 for Oregon), and they do not shoot free throws as well (-7%). In order for Oregon to have the best chance to win, they have to get Duke in foul trouble, and make them pay for those fouls. The way to do that is to hit their free throws. Duke’s weakened rotation could not handle any major foul trouble. Feeding Kenny Foster, the 7’0, 250-pound ox of a man in the middle, and having their little guys round around him, it will create a sucking of the wind by Duke’s players on defense, but also trouble trying to guard Foster. Physically, Duke does not have anyone to do that.

Oregon has the inside track to win this game, quite honestly. Duke is hurt, and Oregon controls the one thing Duke does not do well whatsoever (rebounding). Duke’s ability to gain offensive rebounds will be difficult against a team as fundamentally sound in the art of boxing out as the Ducks. The Ducks will not be intimidated by Duke’s jerseys, either. The Blue Devils are from the ACC, but they are an average team there. Oregon comes from a tougher conference. As far as they’re concerned, Duke has to prove it to them, just as much as Oregon has to prove it to the world.

Pick: Oregon by 7. Oregon has the size, the balance, and the personnel to disrupt Duke’s method of winning. The lack of a true rotation will likely bother Duke’s wishes to run the ball up and down the floor. Oregon’s preference to do the same should hurt the Blue Devils. The seven-foot Foster may have a career game.


2) California (21-8, Pacific Coast Champ) vs 7) Utah (18-10, Mountain State Champ)


Throughout the season, everyone took their turn as the favorites to win the Pacific Coast. The Cal Bears were considered afterthoughts, also-rans, and long-agos (as in, “California used to be a force, but that was long ago.”) And yet, here they are…Pacific Coast champs. They are not the strongest of champions to take the trophy, but the judgment is on the court. They had to adjust on the fly, after losing Willie Legault, their 6’11 freshman ace in the middle, to a torn ligament. Their offense has still revolved as we thought it would: around their crackerjack backcourt of Tony Eyre (14.3 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 3.6 apg, 1.4 spg), SG Tyron Crandall (15.8 ppg, 4.2 rpg), and the surprising contributions of sophomore sniping small forward, Dale Frank (10.6 ppg). Craig Kruger, the other senior than Crandall on this team, provides the steady post presents from his post. And Rene Storm, a 6’10 junior, provides size.

The Bears are what the rest of the PCC may not be: they are rather ordinary, and somewhat forgotten. Eyre is a classic example. He originally was overlooked by all other schools during recruiting, and walked on at Cal. He was the #7 recruit in the nation. This is just like Cal, who ended the year not in our rankings. (We goofed on that one, did we not?) They thrive on being handed injustice, on being slighted. They are perfect at the lesser talk, us versus the world. Their play is not that of a top-flight team, at least in the stats. But, in the end, they won over 70% of their games.

Utah, meanwhile, has a top-20 defense…but they allow points on the other end. They make the extra pass, and get turnovers. They also had to come from nowhere, it appeared, to win the Mountain State. Just like the Bears, it seemed like there was a flash-in-the-pan every week, while the Redskins were overlooked. In the end, the Utes took care of their business, and made it four straight MSAC titles.

That said, this is easily their worst roster of the four. Robert Peeler, one of the players in the nation who will never get his due outside of Salt Lake, is as steady as they come. The National Freshman of the Year and two-time MSAC Conference Player of the Year is not a particularly good shooter (43% for his career), but he finds the open man, and hits shots at their absolutely most necessary moments. One factoid about him: he is about as cold as they come to start a game, shooting 31% in the first ten minutes of any game. In the last five minutes, he is a 77% shooter. When the game is on the line, few are as unraveled, fittingly, as a man named Peeler.

All of that said…while they had four players average more than 10.4 ppg, and six average 8.8, who else is going to stand up? Peeler can stand up to Cal’s backcourt, but they may dominate everyone else. Cal’s bench is tougher than Utah’s. And while the style of play benefits Utah against Cal (being very little in the way of post play), you have to remember that it also benefits Cal. And they have Rene Storm, who may cause headaches for Utah C, 6’8 Jackie Lutz. His backup is a true freshman, Daniel Preece, he of 5.1 points and two fouls in 20.4 minutes on average.

Pick: California by 5. The Bears, in our view, won’t get much further. But they should see past Utah, who will give them trouble simply by the diversity in their offense. In the end, though, Eyre and Crandall will save the day for the Bears, and they will advance.


3) Bradley (24-4, Missouri Valley Champ) vs 6) Dayton (24-5, At Large)


Let us be clear about this now. This Bradley team does not have the name power of the championship team of two seasons ago. They do not have the bench. They do, however, have seven players that can lead them there. This is a championship-caliber team, if they are able to shorten their bench. It begins with C James Calvo, the immovable 6’10, 280-pound mammoth in the middle. He is considered the third-best professional prospect in the upcoming class (blanketed by four Wildcats). He does not have the fanfare, nor the statistical weight of his counterparts. Nor is he a fan favorite, a la Antonia Dabney. But he gets the job done, at 8.8 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks a game. He sets the tone for this group defensively, disrupting shots and controlling rebounds. They are fifth in rebounding, and second in preventing rebounds from opponents. He, and power forward Felix Holzer, are the main reasons why.

On offense, Dionisio Vega (16.8 ppg) and Richard Bulger are a solid 1-2 combination. They also get a lot of little contributions from virtually everyone on the roster. The key for them, as we said before, is tightening that up a bit. They have played top competition, losing to San Fran by 6, to Kansas by 4, and at Indiana by 20 in a competitive game until the end. They also beat NC State by 23 on the road. The Braves will not be intimidated.

Neither will Dayton. The Flyers have their own beast in the pain, in C Denver Logan. The 6’11, 270-pound senior is the eighth-best prospect in the class, and considered the third-best center. He is a little bit more of a scorer than Calvo; it will be extremely interesting to see these two take each other on. We are also looking quite forward to seeing the backcourts of Chris Duron (14.7 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 3.1 apg, 1.4 spg) and Richard Sloan (12.6 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 3.3 apg, 1.7 spg) tackle Vega and Bradley PG Robert Bohannan (11.3 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 4.2 apg, 1.7 spg).

In all honesty, this might be the most even matchup of the first round. Bradley deserved an opponent more becoming of a six-seed, while Dayton didn’t deserve to be so low.

Pick: Bradley by 1. We would not be surprised if Dayton won this. We are taking this win based on Bradley’s experience, as well as just a bit more depth on the bench. This is likely the most balanced game in the first round.

West Semifinals

1) Kansas State vs 5) Oregon: Oregon does not have enough offensive firepower to overcome the Kansas State defense. There is one telling stat, though: only twice this season did Oregon score less than 62 points: 2.21 against Cal (85-48 loss), and 3.2, against Southern Cal (an 80-55 loss). Oregon needs to score to win. Kansas State will not allow that, at least to a level Oregon finds comfortable. The frontcourt of Kansas State should overwhelm Ken Foster, and the waves the Wildcats can throw at the Webfoots should drown them.
Pick: Kansas State by 11. Oregon has to shoot well and stay ahead of Kansas State. The moment the Wildcats control the tide, Oregon will rush, and perhaps get sloppy. The Wildcats will ply their trade, secure a win, and move on.

2) California vs 3) Bradley:: It is hard to fault Cal, but honestly, they got very few wins against quality teams. Despite playing in the top conference in the land, despite winning the top conference in the land, the Bears had earned the reputation as a second-rate team in the conference. It was not until the end that they won the thing, after the rest of the conference laid waste to one another. We do not wish to bode ill on their run, but facts are facts. When it came to the heavyweights of the West, California was not among them for most of the season.

Bradley did not get the recognition that perhaps they deserved. That may be due to the conference they play in. Maybe it is due to the abundance of chaos that has reigned supreme, compared to the relative calm of their waters over the season. But the Braves, as we wrote before, are championship caliber. And they would be a nightmare matchup for Cal. They have the height, the guard play, and the depth necessary to give Cal fits throughout the game. It would take a massive effort from Eyre and Crandall, and then some, for the Golden Bears to emerge victorious.
Pick: Bradley by 9. The backcourt is game for Cal. But we believe the frontcourt, and the defense, is enough to see the Braves through to Kansas State.

West Championship: 1) Kansas State vs 3) Bradley. This reminds of the Bradley-Dayton matchup, if only because the top six on each side are nearly even. Kansas State has minor advantages at all positions but center. They have played some common opponents, notably Kansas (KSU swept, Bradley lost 79-75) and NC State (Bradley won by 23 at NC State on 11.20; KSU won by one on 2.12). It comes off as hedging bets, but honestly, this game can really go in either direction. Both teams are in the top six in total defense, and both have premier offenses. Both have experience, both have depth (though Kansas State has more). Both have excellent coaching; Domingo Jones is one of the game’s very best, while Tommie Teran led Seattle to three 21+ win seasons before coming to Bradley and improving this bunch. This all comes down to execution. And maybe a flip of a coin.
Pick: Kansas State by 2. We’ll go out on a limb and say, consider this Erich Walton’s finest forty as a collegian. Make it four straight for Kansas State.

Last edited by muns : 11-23-2015 at 07:26 PM.
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