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Midwest Region

1) Indiana (29-1, Big Ten Champ) vs 8) Toledo (15-13, Mid-American Champ)

We said, very early in the season, that this was not the same Indiana team of year’s passed. This is true; it may be better. Sure, they don’t have Enoch Horn, or Marcos Godfrey, or Rene Eckstein. Coach Kyle Kappe will tell you, though, that this group should be discounted because of a lack of name power.

“Octavio (Broussard) has become the best combination of scoring and rebounding in the nation,” Kappe said. “He’s a top-ten professional candidate, and probably higher than that. Merv (Erickson) has been in this program a long time. So has Jamal (Conway), Art Porter, Ike Winfrey, Des Phillips…just because we lost a lot of guys from the past couple of seasons, that doesn’t mean we lost a lot. If anything, because these guys had to play in a more constrained manner, because of Enoch and Marcos and the guys who were getting a lot of talk, they are used to going about their jobs without all of the media attention.”

That’s an interesting comment, one that holds water. They got to toil as the backups last year, as the grunts who played not for the publicity or the glory, but because there was still time left on the clock. Now, the stage is theirs, and they don’t have to share it. They also aren’t bothered by the circus around them. They’ve seen it for years.

They are also the group, of course, that has had to live with the elephant in the room for the past year.

Toledo.

The MAC champions, the ones who knocked off the undefeated Hoosiers a year ago, are staring at them once again. We’re not sure that the Rockets are quite thrilled with this situation, either.

“Honestly,” said coach Chas McCarley, “we’d like to leave last year there, and focus on a few days. We have a lot of work to do. We’re not worried about lightning striking twice. We’re worried about the very talented team in front of us.”

The Rockets are not an awful matchup against the Hoosiers. Their defense is quite adequate, and the Hoosiers are prone to going for stretches without scoring. But can Toledo pull out another crackerjack like last year?

Our answer: Not with Richard Rivera and Timmy Torre out. Torre was the man of the hour last year, when Toledo sprung the upset. He’ll be available for the game, but he certainly will not be game-ready. The junior out of Canada, who led the Rockets at 13.5 ppg this year, may have some rust to him. Rivera, the team’s top big man, has been banged up for the past few weeks. He may be game ready, but Broussard is quite the task.

Indiana has their injuries too, of course. Des Phillips was their starting point guard, and Refro a key asset off the bench. However, freshman Sheldon Moultre is more than ready for his time. The bigger issue is whether Art Porter, the junior who has been somewhat buried under the weight of expectations as a former Mr. Basketball in Indiana, can perform as a sixth man off the bench. He will have to play at a higher level if Indiana is to win.

Pick: Indiana by 24. Lightning will not strike twice. And Indiana’s issues with depth will not be exposed…yet.

[b]4) Clemson (20-10, At Large) vs 5) West Virginia (27-5, At Large){/b]


The biggest news in Clemson is Elijah Davis’ injury. He is fine, insists the team, and will be at full strength when the ball tips off. Still, Davis has meant more to his team than any man has meant to theirs. He was passed by Matthew Cordoba for the scoring lead, though just barely (21.8 to 21.2). He is their second-leading rebounder, and second in assists. He sees double and triple teams, and manages to score. He is the likely National Player of the Year. Truthfully, look at this roster. Who else could have taken Clemson to the tournament, if in Davis’ situation?

The Tigers, of course, have a difficult task in West Virginia. The defending maid-of-honor, the Mountaineers have the nation’s top point guard in John Hildebrand (all due respect and condolences to USC’s Freddie Nation). They have Demarcus Woods, one of the best stat-stuffers in the nation. They have been without Tony Gregory for some time, and will be for the next two weeks, at least. But they have depth, and they have offense in droves. They might have also received a wake-up call in the Southern final, when George Washington simply knocked their blocks off.

“We needed that,” said Hildebrand. “We were on cruise control. We’re focused. We know how to navigate, how to get through and survive.”

The Mountaineers will greatly test the Clemson defense. Please remember, though, that the Tigers played in the ACC, home of offensive-minded basketball. What the Mountaineers can throw at Clemson is nothing they haven’t seen all season.

So, the question begs…can Clemson’s plan of Davis and just enough defense throttle the Mountaineers? The Tigers looked like they were on fumes in the 65-41 loss to Maryland in the ACC quarterfinals. The nine-day rest may be just what they needed. They had lost four of five. And the Mountaineers thrive off the extra pass; they are third in the nation in assists. It is their ability to make a defense work that will finally do in Clemson.

Pick: West Virginia by 8. The Mountaineers will make the Tigers work in a manner most ACC teams do not function. Many ACC teams are one or two passes and go; they have great individual scorers. West Virginia thrives off ball movement and continued cutting. They will wear down the Tigers in the second half, and a great effort by Davis (say, 28-30 points, 8 rebounds) will go for naught.

2) San Francisco (26-4, West Coast Champ) vs 7) Texas Western (17-12, Border Champ)

We believe this will not be a contest, and will not waste too much time writing about it. Texas Western turns it over. San Francisco is gifted at forcing miscues by the opponents. The Dons have one of the top guards in the country in senior Stephen Ferrari (13.5 ppg, 7.1 apg), a top-slight scorer in PF Ronnie Veasey (17.3 ppg, 6.4 rpg), and one of the top defensive postmen in Vaughn Griffis (9.2 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 2.0 bpg). They also have a discovered gem in SG Kelly Kuehl (11.7 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.9 apg, 2.0 spg), who may have gone buried had Gil Dittman not gone down for the season with injury.

Texas Western has a veteran team (six players have a season’s worth of starts) with a backcourt that is one of the more underappreciated in the country. Silvio Flores is an All-American candidate, at 18.8 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.8 apg, and 1.6 spg. The battle between him and Kuehl will be fantastic. The big issue for the Miners is, well, the Don frontcourt.

Pick: San Francisco by 16. The Dons will grind the Miners down. Unfortunately, unlike what miners hope to find, it will not be a gem. It will be dust, and the Dons will move on.

3) Southern California (21-8, At Large) vs 6) Oklahoma A&M (23-6, At Large)

We were terribly excited for this game until we realized Witcher would be out. The battle between WItcher/Matthew O’Bryant and Freddie Nation/Edmund Nelson would have been quite compelling. As it is, Witcher is done for the year, and Nelson, the Trojans’ leading scorer at 16.6 ppg, is banged up and may not be at full strength for this game.

The Trojans still have Allen Storer, who has become something of a forgotten man in Glendale. The guard out of Powder River County in Montana has never quite found his footing, despite displaying obvious talent when he does play. As it is, the team will likely revolve around Nation (7.9 ppg, nation-high 9.2 apg), JC Quiles (11.0 ppg, 11.7 rpg) and Hernando Hernandez (11.6 ppg, 6.1 rpg). They play a high-tempo style that would normally suit the Cowboys well, if they were with their starting point guard. But the Trojans do go at a high speed while shooting efficiently; their 49% shooting is seventh in the nation.

Add to this that the Cowboys are the worst free-throw shooting team in the country, points they would need if they are going to slow down Southern Cal, and you have a recipe for disaster for the OKA&M.

To add to the intrigue, Quiles was quoted in the Los Angeles Times as saying, “We want San Francisco. Please, for all that is good in this world, give us the Dons. We want to set the table straight with who is the best out west. It sure isn’t them.”

Careful what you wish for.

Pick: Southern California by 12. This would be closer if Witcher were available. We do not wish to give the Cowboys an excuse for losing the game; truth be told, even with Stefan, they would be a four-to-five point underdog. But without Witcher, their incredibly guard-deficient roster becomes a wreck of an offense. The Trojans should capitalize, and control the tempo of the game to their liking.

Midwest Semifinals

1) Indiana vs 5) West Virginia: There are a couple of questions about this game. Can West Virginia score efficiently away from the basket? Indiana is very good at taking away the inside shot with their big men. Or, more importantly, can West Virginia get Octavio Broussard in foul trouble? If they can succeed, the game completely changes. If they try, fail, and struggle from outside, that would be their obvious death knell. Their shooting percentages only give so much…Woods shot 51%, Timothy Freeland 53% (on only 88 attempts), Charlie Woolfolk 52%, and Matt Olson 54%. Hildebrand shot 45%. Presuming these were not all layups, that sounds pretty good.

The bigger issue at play is, of course Indiana’s guard depth. This is where you find an issue in missing Des Phillips and Win Renfro. With these guys, Indiana would be a clear favorite. Without them, we’re not sure that Indiana’s inside presence is enough to neutralize the Mountaineers. The only loss Indiana suffered, back to Duquesne in November, came in a game where Chauncey Hinkley scored 34. The combination of Chris McKeehan and Richard Manion had five points. The Mountaineers do not rely on the post to get their points. There-in lies the rub for the Hoosiers: an efficient offense that focuses on making the correct pass and finding either an uncontested layup or an easy jump shot.

Without Phillips and Renfro, the onus falls on Ike Winfrey, Sheldon Moultrie, and Art Porter. With all due respect to those three, we cast our lot with West Virginia.

Pick: West Virginia by 6. Indiana does not have the guard depth to control Hildebrand or Woolfolk all game. And they may not have a true answer for Woods. But the star of this game should be Hildebrand, showing the importance of experience at the primary ball-handling spot. We also believe this is where West Virginia’s previous experience most comes into play. Many, including us, like to tout Kansas State’s three straight national semis. West Virginia has been to back-to-back semifinals, and, as history tells us, got to the big game last year.

2) San Francisco vs 3) Southern California: As mentioned before, the Trojans were crowing about this game, demanding to see the Dons before the game is played out. In this scenario, they get it, And they do not like it.

In a matchup of Ferrari vs Nation, we take the former. He has the experience at this stage: he has started all 128 games in his career. Here is the list of people who have played in that many games:

Elijah Davis (131), Clemson
Lane McClary (128) and Jonathan Fleenor (128, 126 starts), Duke
Tommy Fritts (128, 95 starts), Kansas State
Octavio Broussard (129, started 67), Indiana
Glen Girard (129, started 62) and Dorian Brady (128), Rutgers
Lenny Snell (130, started 33), Kentucky
John Hildebrand (142, started 109), West Virginia

That’s it. That’s the list. The most experience any USC player has is 88 games (Hernandez, Storer). Nation has played in 83 games, and started 59. He has played against excellent point guards. He does not have nearly the experience of Ferrari, who started at a high level, and only gotten better. Nation only stepped into the limelight this season.

In the end, this has the feel of a bad matchup for the Trojans, much in the way Cal was a bad matchup for the Trojans late. With Nelson on the mend (he will likely be fine for this one), and with a tough matchup against Kuehl, you are asking Nation to do a lot. This will also be a tough matchup for Quiles, who has difficulty against scoring forwards. He is a great rebounder, but not particularly the best defender Veasey has seen this year.

Pick: San Francisco by 4. The Dons have seen the national semifinals. Ferrari, Griffis, Warren Tandy and Jared Stewart were part of that team. We really feel like the Trojans’ best is yet to come. This will likely be a lesson in playing defense the whole way through.

Midwest Championship: 2) San Francisco vs 5) West Virginia. Could you imagine, reader? The top two offenses in the country, going at one another? The ballet of these two efficient offense…great at the extra pass, at finding the open spot on the floor, the open man? If this were to happen, it would be the game of the tournament.

Picking a winner here is difficult. The Ferrari/Hildebrand matchup, alone, would be worth the price of admission. Add in Woods and Veasey and Woolfolk and Griffis and Kuehl and Freeland, and you have a matchup for the ages.

So, how do you pick a team against a mirror image of itself?

Pick: West Virginia by 1. We think the Hildebrand/Woolfolk/Woods combination will beat out the Ferrari/Kuehl/Veasey combo. But it is that close. Freshman guard Jared Bazan could be a hero here…after all, is it not the player off-the-radar that delivers the biggest blow?