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East Region

1) Washington (25-6, At Large) vs 8) George Washington (14-18, Southern Champ)


PPG OPPG Rebounds OREB Assists Turnovers oTO FG% OFG% FT% Key Player
1) Washington 74.9 (8) 63.7 (77) 38.4 (18) 34.0 (73) 18.8 (10) 13.9 (96) 18.6 (4) 48.1 (16) 43.9 (52) 72.0 (20) PG Danny Fenton
8) Geo Wash 69.8 (31) 72.3 (168) 35.6 (54) 36.3 (134) 15.6 (34) 13.8 (82) 13.3 (89) 44.2 (104) 47.6 (148) 72.7 (9) PG Charlie Arroyo
Injuries: Washington: PG Marquis Gray (2); GW: SG Hershel Ramirez (31)

The Huskies should have a field day with George Washington’s open-fenced defense. They make the extra pass, move well without the ball, and the Colonials have trouble following through on screens. The Huskies have Danny Fenton, a potential All-American and PCC Player of the Year candidate. The Italian import, Italo Malocco, has become big this year, averaging a career-high 14.6 points and 4.0 rebounds per game. Add in Gisbert Bittes’ defense and Francis Calhoun’s rebounding, and the bench, and you have a tough opponent to stop.

George Washington does not like to stop many, too. And now they are without shooting guard Hershel Ramirez, who is down with an injury. His 11.4 points are going to be hard to replace. Guard Andrew Batson (13.8 ppg) is very productive when he plays; he will get more minutes, and his production will have to go up accordingly. Overall, GW has a solid roster…but an awful bench, and very streaky play.

Pick: Washington by 16. The Huskies should cruise by the Colonials behind Fenton and Malocco.

4) Duquesne (26-5, At Large) vs 5) Georgia Tech (23-7, At Large)


PPG OPPG Rebounds OREB Assists Turnovers oTO FG% OFG% FT% Key Player
4) Duquesne 67.5 (43) 57.7 (15) 35.0 (71) 34.4 (88) 15.5 (38) 13.7 (78) 16.9 (9) 47.7 (26) 41.3 (10) 69.0 (65) PG Rod Williams
5) Georgia Tech 72.6 (19) 63.8 (80) 41.1 (3) 33.9 (68) 16.8 (20) 13.5 (68) 12.8 (117) 47.3 (28) 42.4 (21) 67.7 (83) PF Joe Lundberg
Injuries: None

Many have wanted to pile Duquesne this year, saying that the Dukes are so high because of their name and recent success. That would be patently absurd. The Dukes were 14-5 in games against the top 100 this year, and while they may have faced more bottom-feeding opponents than some teams, they still faced Villanova, Indiana, Seattle, Kansas, Duke, and Notre Dame. They also have Chauncey Hinkley, one of the best all-around forwards in the nation. He averaged 16.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, 4.7 assists (4.7 turnovers, too), and 2.9 steals per game. Forward Chris Green (12.4 ppg) has been a solid supplemental figure, whil guard Rod Williams, forward Richard Manion, and C Chris McKeehan offer solid support. They have a solid bench, with Al Samson and Jimmy Matos leading the way.

The Dukes have one of the better defenses in the nation, ranking 15th in points, and tenth in field goal percentage. They do not allow teams gain assists on them, and get into passing lanes quite often. They surprise you with their speed. They have solid backups at each post position, something not all teams can say.

The Yellow Jackets, meanwhile, are just like Clemson. Not many thought they would be here (our Analytics bureau was sure Clemson would not be here). On the surface, GT is much weaker than they have been over the past couple of seasons. They go only seven deep, and their two bench guys are sophomore guard Chris Hardnett and freshman forward Andrew Wong, neither of whom have much experience. So, the Jackets rely on a collective approach on offense. Four players average double figures, led by guard Albert Johnson’s 16.2 a game. Justin Jones (11.2 ppg, 9.0 rpg) and Joe Lundberg (10.9 ppg, 9.9 rpg) are the rebounding chaos brothers that make things tough on other teams. They are excellent at offensive rebounds, too (2nd in the nation).

So, the question becomes, Georgia Tech’s offense, or Duquesne’s defense? Here is one thing to keep in mind, when making this pick: Georgia Tech’s defense is 21st in the nation, in terms of field goal percentage against. Their style is always difficult to play against. That is why we like them here.

Pick: Georgia Tech by 5. The Yellow Jackets should own the rebounding edge, and limit how Duquesne shoots the ball. The team statistics in this trend towards Georgia Tech getting this one narrowly.

2) North Carolina State (24-9, At Large) vs 7) Niagara (17-12, WNY3 Champ)


PPG OPPG Rebounds OREB Assists Turnovers oTO FG% OFG% FT% Key Player
2) NC State 73.6 (14) 64.8 (95) 39.9 (10) 34.8 (99) 19.4 (5) 12.2 (28) 14.2 (61) 47.2 (32) 44.0 (56) 66.9 (105) PF Lou Bergeron
7) Niagara 66.2 (52) 65.3 (107) 34.4 (84) 34.1 (78) 16.5 (25) 13.7 (76) 15.5 (24) 45.7 (57) 47.5 (147) 68.7 (70) SG Matthew Ashton
Injuries: Niagara: SF Monroe Serrato (22)

Niagara is here for the fourth straight season. They have a fantastic legacy point man in Curt To, who has started every (120) in his career. He’s going to be severely hampered in the first round, though, for two reasons: 1) leading scorer Monroe Serrato is out with an injury, and Niagara will not be able to fully replace those twenty points a game, and 2) NC State.

The Wolfpack is not seeded incorrectly as a #2, despite many wondering how they are there when North Carolina is a #4. This is a veteran group led by three solid scoring options in forwards Lou Bergeron (15.4 ppg, 7.9 rpg) and Abram Willoughby (13.3 ppg, 4.7 rpg), and guard Chris Davis (13.4 ppg, 5.2 apg, 3.9 rpg). John Rossi (8.2 ppg, 11.2 rpg, 2.0 bpg) anchors the defense that held its own in the high-scoring ACC. They move the ball, don’t turn it over, and have one of the top rebounding groups in the nation (tenth overall).

In all honesty, this is an easy pick.

Pick: NC State by 26. Expect the Wolfpack to get early separation, and continue to build throughout the game. Niagara was going to have a hard enough time as it is; without Serrato, this becomes a near-impossible mission.

3) Seattle (28-3, At Large) vs 6) St. John’s (18-10, Metro Champ)


PPG OPPG Rebounds OREB Assists Turnovers oTO FG% OFG% FT% Key Player
3) Seattle 68.6 (41) 52.8 (3) 36.0 (48) 34.1 (76) 16.1 (29) 12.0 (23) 16.5 (15) 48.3 (12) 38.8 (2) 68.5 (73) SF Jesus Jones
6) St. John's 63.3 (81) 57.7 (14) 36.0 (46) 32.8 (42) 13.1 (94) 14.0 (100) 12.9 (113) 46.7 (39) 41.1 (9) 65.6 (135) C Dennis Shelby
Injuries: PG Jesus Guzman (33)

Frankly, we find Seattle’s seeding to be absurd. They are, quite arguably, the best team in the west. To be sent east, and as a third-seed, is ludcrious. They were 18-3 against the top 100, 6-3 against the top fifty. They have the third-best defense in the nation, second-toughest to shoot against. They will be without starting off-guard Jesus Guzman for the tournament, which is a blow. However, their lead guard, Gregory Wyman, is also their leading scorer (14.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 5.4 apg, 1.4 spg). Jesus Jones, the much-heralded small forward, averaged 12.7 points and 4.4 rebounds this year, and is big candidate to break out as a star in this tournament. David Harder (10.5 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 2.7 bpg) gets lost in the shuffle by opponents sometimes. Expect Justin Lavergne, a true sophomore who has been efficient this season, should step into a bigger role.

St. John’s, meanwhile, is purportedly one of the best defenses in college basketball. We don’t see that. We see them as having played a pretty awful schedule, and while they rebound well, they get into sloppy games. They do have some solid players, led by Russian forward Veniamin Alexeev (10.3 ppg, 5.9 rpg), and a trio of guys who score nine points a game. Dennis Shelby (9.5 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 3.2 bpg), as well as the guards Andrew Davis (9.3 ppg) and Columbus Herrera (9.0 ppg) are tough contributors. Kelvin Denton (7.5 ppg, 7.5 rpg) is the key off the bench.

Seattle’s size, and their ability, far exceeds St. John’s. This may be the lowest-scoring game of the first round to us, as both teams do have defensive mindsets.

Pick: Seattle by 10. The Chieftains have real defense, though, and should shut down the Johnnies regularly. Expect Harder, in particular, to have a good game.

East Semifinals

1) Washington vs 5) Georgia Tech: The Huskies have issues with teams that can rebound well. Georgia Tech rebounds better than just about anyone. The PCC has several teams that rebound well, though, so take that with a grain of salt. Also, they ranked 18th in total rebounds themselves. Georgia Tech will have to contend with that.

What we like is how the Huskies are able to achieve against tough defenses. They execute well, don’t press, and find the open man. We will be very interested to see how Georgia Tech’s defensive tenets force adjustments from the Huskies.

Pick: Washington by 6. We don’t believe they will have to make too many adjustments. They have balance, talent, and depth. The latter is where Georgia Tech falters. Washington will have to earn the victory, but we believe they will.

2) North Carolina State vs 3) Seattle: There are many things we like about this game. What we would like the most is Seattle’s defense against NC State. They have plenty of size to match up with the Wolfpack bigs. How they handle Bergeron, specifically, should dictate the flow of the game. If Bergeron is able to establish himself, NC State’s offense gets much easier to orchestra. If Bergeron is limited, Seattle should be able to dictate the flow.

Moreover, the battle between Wyman and sophomore guard John Clawson (7.5 ppg, 5.8 apg) will be the other big matchup to watch. It may be whoever wins that matchup wins the game.

One thing we do not like, however, is NC State’s defense against Seattle. The Wolfpack have a tendency to let teams score on them. They did not see a defense like Seattle’s in the ACC season. Kansas State allowed NC State to shoot 52% from the field, but forced 21 turnovers in their 64-63 win at NC State. That is the closest we can get to mimicking Seattle’s defense. If the same plays out, it does not mean well for the Wolfpack.

Pick: Seattle by 3. There are many pros and cons to taking either side. Maybe it comes down to free throw shooting. NC State is not particularly adept at this aspect of the game. It feels as though any missed opportunities will be massive for either team. We think Seattle will force more miscues, and move on.

East Championship: 1) Washington vs 3) Seattle.. This is the game everyone wanted to see out west. In this scenario, we get it, but in the east. This game will come down to the defenses: how effective can Seattle be against the varied Washington offense, and how will Washington’s middling defense be against Seattle’s leveled attack? In this, we favor Seattle in both regards. We also believe this will be the game Jesus Jones announces himself to the nation. He has had a tendency to shy away in the big moments thus far, deferring to Wyman. But with Wyman having to deal with Danny Fenton all game, Gisbert Bittes, a noted defender, will have his hands full with Jones.

Pick: Seattle by 4. The lower scoring this game is, the better for Seattle. Washington has to come out shooting the ball well. If they’re cold, and Seattle grabs control, well…ask Duquesne what happens. They were held to just 36 points by the Chieftains earlier in the season.

National Semifinals

[b]Seattle (East) vs West Virginia (Midwest).[b] Seattle’s defense will be severely tested against West Virginia’s vaunted offense. Truth be told, West Virginia does not get held down. They only scored less than 70 points five times this season. This may be the game where the Chieftains have more questions than answers.

We believe this game will be the coronation of John Hildebrand as the top point guard of the last four years. He’ll have to go through at least one more incredible point guard, this time Wyman. We believe Hildebrand will get the better of this matchup. West Virginia is good at getting opponents into foul trouble, too (though they are not terribly too good at shooting the free throws). This is something to watch.

Pick: West Virginia by 6. To be honest, when we looked at this game, we initially thought Seattle would romp with their defense. But after we delved in, we thought all signs pointed to West Virginia. The Mountaineers are the unlikeliest team to get to back-to-back title games. Yet, here they are.

Kentucky (South) vs Kansas State (West). The first time these two teams met, Kentucky got themselves a 71-57 win. They held Kansas State to 44% shooting, and Kansas State shot 11-20 from the line. Billy Jacob shot 3-11, while Stephan Williford had 23 points. Curt Davis was hurt, but managed eight points and ten rebounds. That left Kansas State 1-1 on the year.

They have not lost since.

The Wildcats have since shook off their wishes to be a totally offensive team, and have bought into the defensive philosophy and vision Domingo Jones had for this team. Since then, they have become the defensive juggernaut we know them as now. They keep teams off the boards. They disrupt passing lanes, to the point that teams go one pass and shoot. They force bad shots. They make opposing offenses miserable.

Kentucky has too much poise to get bothered to such a degree that they cannot operate. But we would expect Williford to not reach the numbers he reached the first time. We would expect the Wildcats to try to funnel the offense into the post, and force Moncada and Davis to carry them.

If Kentucky can keep things varied, and find ways for their guards to produce, they will probably win the game. If they have areas of the offense shut down for stretches, and if they allow the Kansas State guards to dictate the flow and action of the game, Kansas State should win more easily than one would think.

Pick: Kansas State by 7. We believe the Wildcats will be able to dictate the action. This should be a beauty of a game, though, with two teams who know themselves, with the amount of talent they have on the floor…it will be a national semifinal for the ages.

National Championship: West Virginia vs Kansas State

This seems fitting, that the attention of this season ends the way it started, with this rematch. The first game was won by West Virginia; they shot 56% from the field, overcoming 22 turnovers to win, 78-69. Demarcus Woods had 16 points, 12 rebounds, and five assists, while John Hildebrand had 12 points and 12 assists. Billy Jacob had 19, David Gunter 18, and Erich Walton 17 for the Wildcats.

With teams like these, with the kind of abilities these two teams have, there really is not a lot to say. It will come down to who executes, and who steps forward into the light.

Now, we have been burned twice by taking Kansas State. We believe the third time is the charm. The four seniors, Gunter, Jacob, Tommy Fritts, and Walton, have gone into the past two seasons as the favorite to win the title. This year, they went into the year as the favorites to win it all. They have given us no reason to pick against them this time. In this scenario, no team comes between the Wildcats and the final goal.

The Kansas State Wildcats have gone through heartache and failed expectations in each of the last three years. This year, the final one of this era, will see the happy ending.

Pick: Kansas State 74, West Virginia 72