Quote:
Originally Posted by lighthousekeeper
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...-the-election/
here's a similar calculator (Swing O Matic) that alleges that if whites have a 100% turnout rate this election, but still retain their slight GOP preference, the election will still go to DEMs. in fact, you'd have to have 100% white turnout and a 33% reduction in black turnout to swing the election to GOP.
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That's an awesome calculator! Lots of fun to experiment with.
But actually, all you have to do is swing college-educated whites from 56% GOP to 62% GOP, and it swings the election, with no change in turnout whatsoever. So there are ways simpler than what you propose ...
For example, without Obama running again, I would expect black voter turnout to drop. And then if you ... (off to play with the sliders again) ...