Quote:
Originally Posted by bhlloy
Can't he win? What can he say at this point that will lose support? What gaffe can he make that is traditionally worse than "kill muslim non-combatants and deny them all entry to the US?"
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I don't think elections are necessarily about measuring gaffes.
If you want a relatively gaffe-free, intelligent, competent, experienced candidate who seems to take measured, nuanced positions every time... Kasich really stands out.
But he simply doesn't look or sound like a president. He's kind of nerdy and anxious and probably was friends with Michael J. Fox growing up near Columbus, Ohio. So he remains at the bottom of the polls, except in New Hampshire where there's a fondness for wonks - not that he'll win there.
Now we know that 25-30% of likely Republican voters don't mind hearing vaguely racist comments about Islamic people and immigrants. I agree this does damage to the Republican brand, but I maintain that Trump has a lower ceiling than the other candidates and once the crowd thins, support will coalesce around a more establishment candidate.
It's a long race, and we're still almost two months from the beginning. Cruz will probably take Iowa and New Hampshire will change very quickly in response, as it always does. From there, momentum, money and organization matters - and Trump will only have one of the three.