Front Office Football Central - View Single Post - 2015-2016 Republican Primary Season

Solecismic · 12-08-2015, 04:56 PM

CNN/WMUR has a new New Hampshire poll out in the last hour, with 402 Republican likely voters.

Trump 32, Rubio 14, Christie 9, Bush 8, Kasich 7, Cruz 6, Carson 5, Fiorina 5, Paul 2, Graham 1, Huckabee 1, Gilmore 0+, Santorum 0+.

This shows a consistent shift off of the non-establishment candidates. Fairly consistently now, the three with no elected experience are in the 40s rather than the mid-50s.

But there's no agreement on the masses. Christie is somewhat local to them and has focused on New Hampshire. It's paying off for him. He's still a long shot, but he's not out of it because of the momentum a good showing in New Hampshire would create.

Right-wing candidates like Cruz and Huckabee always fare badly in New Hampshire. So 6% is pretty good for Cruz, as long as he wins Iowa.

What struck me about this poll is this - which one issue is most important to your vote?

In June, 44% said jobs/economy and 19% said foreign policy/national security. And in this poll, it was reversed at 18%/50%. Immigration has gone from 7% to 12%, but was at 14% in September.

So this change is primarily about ISIS. Trump does well on the ISIS question (33% said he's best on that issue - Bush is second at 11%). But he "shines" on the immigration question (45% to Rubio's 14%).

Trump rallies his base with fear. He's confident in the face of terror and illegal immigrants, and that speaks to people who don't really seem to care why Trump is confident. That's why he's taking this stance. It's a bit depressing.

I'll just repeat that his ceiling is lower. Maybe the one big mistake many made when this started was assuming the anti-Bush thing would go away and he would win less conservative states like New Hampshire easily. But it hasn't - his negatives are still sky-high in New Hampshire.

So there's a void that no one has filled. People looked at Fiorina and didn't really like her once she got their attention. People looked at Carson and he self-destructed under the pressure, I think. So they're uncertain, and Trump has name recognition and appeals to fear. Not a great combination, but I'm still confident that Trump won't win this.

12-08-2015, 04:56 PM	#1641
Solecismic Solecismic Software Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Canton, OH	CNN/WMUR has a new New Hampshire poll out in the last hour, with 402 Republican likely voters. Trump 32, Rubio 14, Christie 9, Bush 8, Kasich 7, Cruz 6, Carson 5, Fiorina 5, Paul 2, Graham 1, Huckabee 1, Gilmore 0+, Santorum 0+. This shows a consistent shift off of the non-establishment candidates. Fairly consistently now, the three with no elected experience are in the 40s rather than the mid-50s. But there's no agreement on the masses. Christie is somewhat local to them and has focused on New Hampshire. It's paying off for him. He's still a long shot, but he's not out of it because of the momentum a good showing in New Hampshire would create. Right-wing candidates like Cruz and Huckabee always fare badly in New Hampshire. So 6% is pretty good for Cruz, as long as he wins Iowa. What struck me about this poll is this - which one issue is most important to your vote? In June, 44% said jobs/economy and 19% said foreign policy/national security. And in this poll, it was reversed at 18%/50%. Immigration has gone from 7% to 12%, but was at 14% in September. So this change is primarily about ISIS. Trump does well on the ISIS question (33% said he's best on that issue - Bush is second at 11%). But he "shines" on the immigration question (45% to Rubio's 14%). Trump rallies his base with fear. He's confident in the face of terror and illegal immigrants, and that speaks to people who don't really seem to care why Trump is confident. That's why he's taking this stance. It's a bit depressing. I'll just repeat that his ceiling is lower. Maybe the one big mistake many made when this started was assuming the anti-Bush thing would go away and he would win less conservative states like New Hampshire easily. But it hasn't - his negatives are still sky-high in New Hampshire. So there's a void that no one has filled. People looked at Fiorina and didn't really like her once she got their attention. People looked at Carson and he self-destructed under the pressure, I think. So they're uncertain, and Trump has name recognition and appeals to fear. Not a great combination, but I'm still confident that Trump won't win this.