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Briefly, here's my speculation as to a path to victory for the remaining (though not all) candidates, ordered based on today's RCP polling average:
Trump - currently @ 34.4%
Translate polls into votes & wins. It's that simple. He trails Cruz in Iowa but leads the field in NH. Current analysis says his supporters are of a demographic that doesn't turn out. If that's true, he probably needs to win either Iowa or NH or risk his supporters not turning out in other states. But Trump has bucked all the other common wisdom, so....
Cruz - @ 17.1%
Continue to position himself as the 2nd choice for Trump supporters and hope that the Trump train derails itself. He's already clearly picked up a bunch of former Carson supporters, but I don't see who else from the field has supporters who would view him as their 2nd choice (maybe Paul, but he only has 2.4% anyway).
Alternatively, keep Rubio, Bush & Christie enough at bay so that the GOP Establishment has no choice but to annoit him to avoid Trump. But are Rubio, Bush & Christie supporters going to vote for Cruz as a 2nd choice, or simply stay home?
Rubio - @ 12.3%
He's currently in a downward trend, which seems to indicate he's hit his ceiling until people start dropping out. So he needs a LOT of candidates (i.e. anyone with a passing familiarity with GOP "moderation" - Bush, Christie, Fiorina, Graham, Pataki) to drop out, and soon.
Alternatively, hang in there long enough to make a late delegate surge as the GOP electorate wakes up and realizes it doesn't want Trump or Cruz. But is that enough of the remaining GOP electorate to push him over?
Carson - @ 10%
The protest vote that's currently with Trump and probably half of Cruz's support has to go to him via them dropping out, which seems exceptionally unlikely. Given this and his clear downward trend, I really can't see a path forward, barring some sort of miracle.
Bush - @ 4.6%
Rubio & Cruz dropping out prior to Super Tuesday is probably the bare minimum (or them losing their support and him gaining it). A resurgent Christie doesn't help him at all.
Alternatively, there's plenty of indicate (from 538 at least) that the electorate doesn't really wake up until 2 weeks before Iowa. So maybe there's an awakening and Bush surges back into to race. A lot of ifs there, though.
Christie - @ 3.1%
I could see him picking up Cruz, Rubio & Bush votes should they drop out. But it requires that they drop out and Trump melts down.
Fiorina & Paul - @ 2.4% each
Has anyone come from this low at Christmas to get the nomination?
Overall
The biggest wild card is simply whether or not Trump's supporters turn out. If they do (and nothing untoward happens to his polling in the next 6 weeks), it looks very difficult for anyone else to win save something truly dramatic happening like a "grand bargain" between the rest to align behind a single anti-Trump candidate (which carries its own significant risks).
If Trump's supporters don't turn out, and we assume they mostly don't vote at all, then it's shaping up to be a Cruz (anti-establishment) vs. Rubio/Christie/Bush (establishment) race. If two of those three drop out early in support of the other, they could make a race of it with Cruz in this scenario, but we've already seen the anti-establishment vote looks big for the GOP this year, and it's hard to see one of those 3 cracking through it. At a bare minimum a long, hard slog seems likely.
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