[BishopMVP]

Been doing a ton of year-end evaluations/predictions of kids I coach, so I wanted to check in on some other predictions. (Edited with current projected win totals, before last night's games.)

Originally Posted by bishopmvp

Over/Unders by conference:

East
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Cavaliers 56.5 UNDER (59.0)
Bulls 49.5 (51.3)
Hawks 49.5 (49.2)
Heat 45.5 (50.7)
Raptors 45.5 (47.8)
Wizards 45.5 OVER (38.5)
Bucks 43.5 UNDER (31.9)
Celtics 42.5 OVER (45.8)
Pacers 42.5 (45.8)
Pistons 33.5 OVER (44.5)
Hornets 32.5 (41)
Magic 32.5 (44.5)
Knicks 31.5 (37.5)
Nets 28.5 OVER (24.1)
76ers 21.5 (8.9)

West
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Warriors 60.5 (77.2)
Spurs 58.5 (68.3)
Thunder 57.5 (56.3)
Clippers 56.5 UNDER (51.6)
Rockets 54.5 (38.7)
Grizzlies 50.5 (43.3)
Pelicans 47.5 UNDER (27.3)
Jazz 40.5 (37.3)
Mavericks 38.5 OVER (45.8)
Suns 36.5 (26.6)
Kings 30.5 (33.8)
Lakers 29.5 UNDER (18.8)
Blazers 26.5 (33.2)
Nuggets 26.5 (28.1)
Wolves 25.5 (28.1)

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Saving my quick predictions here so I can make fun of myself later. Wizards look great on offense, Celtics have the deepest bench in the league (some would even say it includes 80% of our starting lineup!), and I'm not sure if the Nets make some dumb trade to add another overpriced veteran, but I don't think they'll cut Joe Johnson and they'll pick up some cheap wins down the stretch to try and avoid the ignominy of giving Boston a top 5 pick while other EC teams are tanking. In the same vein, Detroit will be the team that's still competing for that 8th spot down the stretch and ending up high 30's. On the flip side, the Cavs are banged up to start and LeBron knows the regular season doesn't matter. Not sure he'll take a full sabbatical again, but he saves his body and doesn't go out all out every night. Bulls/Hawks/Heat have high ceilings but so many question marks I don't like picking them. Toronto could implode, but the Atlantic Division is bad enough and Kyle Lowry good enough if he stays healthy 45 seems about right. Really interested to see if they try to build around Valanciunas or Masai looks to trade him for someone who fits their style better. I think Charlotte and Orlando will try for 8th even though they have little chance, but they'll try long enough it's hard to pick them below 32 in a bad conference. Knicks are the same with the added lack of their 1st round pick, so no incentive to pack it in. Don't think Carmelo gets traded in season though - so many more options available with all the cap space opening up after the draft.

I only really like the Mavs to go over out West. I know people are picking them to fall hard, but Rick Carlisle will will them to stay in the race unless Wesley Matthews is less than 100% all season. I don't quite like the Clippers as much - I feel like they're complacent about the regular season now. Pelicans are too thin and banged up, even if Anthony Davis counts as 1.5 guys. And I just can't wait to see how hard Kobe is forcing smiles and trying to be a leader until he snaps on Randle/Russell for rookie mistakes (or just Nick Young for being Nick Young.) A ton of people are jumping hard on the Jazz bandwagon, but like I said I don't see a point guard, and Zach Lowe is saying Rudy Gobert is looking a little tired after his summer workload. Suns should go over, but terrible chemistry could do them in. Breaking up the Morris twins is a gamble, and maybe a clean break from both would've been a better option. Blazers/Nuggets/Wolves are all young and should play fast enough they'll be in enough games to win 1/3rd of them, especially when they get a few cheap wins against older teams who don't want to match their energy.

So the #1 takeaway as always, damn Vegas does an awesome job. At the same time, and I swear I didn't do this intending to brag, 7 out of 10 right now! (although plenty could still flip) Maybe I should've taken nol's advice and actually put some money down

The mistakes are always more fun to analyze, so looking at the three I'm "getting wrong", Cleveland looks like I thought they would, missed Kyrie for 90% of the year, and they're still on pace for 59 wins? Yikes... Kevin Love's just fitting in so much better this year, and the addition of competent wings really has been more important than the loss of Kyrie. Although I think LeBron could dial it back another notch and let Kyrie/Love figure some things out so they fall slightly under, this team's getting the 1 seed and winning the East. The Wizards I completely don't get. John Wall looks like he's taken that next step to borderline 1st team all-NBA player every time I watch him, Otto Porter's looked like the same player who broke out last spring (at least the last few weeks) and they're still floundering at .500. There's something I'm not seeing here - I love Paul Pierce, but saying they miss his leadership seems a little too cheap. The Nets are still under, but just like I was telling every Celtics fan dreaming about Ben Simmons those first couple weeks the Nets are coming around, and will pass a few tanking teams in that March/April stretch run. Maybe that brutal Jarrett Jack injury changes things, and maybe enough teams do stay in the playoff race long enough to bank more wins before flipping to 2016-2017 mode, but they've still got a couple players. Forget Brook Lopez, who's untradeable due to contract/injury, Thaddeus Young deserves to get traded to a contender and he'll probably stay stuck in that purgatory.

East outliers I didn't see coming - Charlotte/Orlando/to a lesser extent NY. The Knicks are the easiest - no one saw Porzingis being this good right away, and Robin Lopez is really growing on me. Unselfish, defense/boxing out, that weird little brother offensive game highlighted by his scoop hook shot from the waist? I love it. I actually think it makes even more sense for them to trade Carmelo now that Porzingis looks like a future franchise player. Melo's still valuable, he's still good (and for a realistic Celtics trade, that Nets pick, + David Lee's contract + like Terry Rozier & James Young would make a ton of sense for both sides... if Cleveland wasn't looming and making it a dumb idea by Boston to push any chips in yet), and by the time KP hits that stage Melo will be well on the decline, and you no longer need him for any "face of the franchise" reasons. The fans would totally buy into building around Kristaps. Orlando I see two things. Dusting off Channing Frye immensely helped their spacing (and I still don't understand why Phoenix let him go when they were trying to accelerate their rebuild, or why he got so little burn last year in Orlando), and separating/staggering Oladipo/Payton's minutes was a bold move that really works. You know, who cares who starts if 3 guards all play 32 minutes? Why would an OKC ever sit Russell Westbrook and KD at the same time, and bring them back in at the same time? Charlotte's the weirdest - I don't know if they'll keep it up (and they've already taken a large step back recently), but as much as I love so many parts of his game holy shit MKG's absence really improves that team. I always mocked my UConn friends that love Kemba Walker because shoot-first PG's who shoot below 40% are a detriment to the team, not a good player... but all of a sudden you add more spacing on that floor and he's up to 44% now. I thought he was in that hero ball range like JR Smith/Nick Young where he would just take 40% shots regardless of shot clock, or teammates, but maybe he really was much more hamstrung by his teammates than I realized. (Healthy) Nic Batum getting dropped into their laps also helps.

Western conference clearly I blew it on GS and to a lesser extent SA, but I'm never going to apologize for not picking any specific NBA team to win 60+ games! (And sorry GS fans, I'm still taking the under on them winning 77.2 games ) The Rockets dysfunction is well-known and not worth re-hashing. You build your team around super talented flakes like James Harden and Dwight Howard, sometimes you'll get burnt I guess. Everyone knew the Memphis slide was coming eventually, but it's happened sooner than anticipated. With New Orleans, even though I got the under, I certainly did not see this bad a team. Maybe I'm overrating the brow a little bit, because that's now 2 respected coaches who can't quite seem to get him to dominate every game like I think he can. I know they didn't have NBA perimeter players for a month+, but how does he not have a dRtg below 100 yet in his career? Why is he shooting 2 3's a game, or long jumpers, when he shoots 29% on them and should eat teams alive on the offensive glass? He's the ultimate rare freak 7 footer that should be crashing the offensive glass every time but can still manage to get back in transition defense. When AD (or Nerlens Noel) is out on the perimeter shooting long jumpers this pace and space stuff has gone too far. Everyone's binky Utah still might end up Over, but the Rudy Gobert injury happened, and even before that you see the problems inherent in building a team around big players but not having a true PG. Burks, and Hood, and especially Hayward are all really good players, but this team is one competent true PG away from reaching whatever potential they have (and I'm really intrigued to see it as a counter to all the teams pushing smallball). If Andre Miller was 3 years younger he would've been perfect... Jarrett Jack too until Sunday. Maybe Jose Calderon's a fit if NY does trade for future assets? And then we reach the Suns...

Originally Posted by nol

"Terrible" trades update: Brandon Knight is averaging 20-5-4 and coexisting pretty well with Bledsoe.

So I avoided this initially because I feel it comes off as overly antagonistic, but as long as I'm going over my past positions, you still claiming this? Anyone still want to say Phoenix made the right move there?

The Knight-Bledsoe pairing has been awkward, and has created some minor locker-room tension, according to sources familiar with the matter. Both thrive as lead ball-handlers, and Knight has bristled over the years whenever anyone has labeled him as something other than a pure point guard.

I'm not even saying Knight's a bad player, but this is why you don't trade a probable top 7 pick just to pay max money to a 22y/o who 2 separate teams have already given up on. IT4 is an example of a player that 2 teams gave up on who is thriving, but that was trading a late 1st round pick for him and paying him $6.5m/y, not $15m/y. And I know that Lakers pick is still 50% likely to end up in the top 3 and be rolled over to next year, but ironically the signs of life they're showing right now make that less likely, as does Phoenix's complete collapse. And Phoenix technically is only 5 games out still, and they can blame it on the Bledsoe injury all they want, but this was happening before that happened. Though who knows, I love his attitude as a fan, but maybe Bledsoe is the real problem there - based on armchair psychoanalysis I can't imagine he's the easiest teammate to get along with. (Although the real answer is the owner. Get off Robert Sarver's lawn kids. So freaking happy the Celtics have Grousbeck etc that give support where/if needed, but stay out of the way and let basketball people make the decisions.)