Quote:
Originally Posted by bhlloy
It would be massively interesting to the race if Cruz can take Iowa but I don't think it's going to be close. I think Trump has it by at least 5 points
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I wouldn't take the odds on that bet. Among political insiders in Iowa right now, the big question is whether or not Trump falls to 3rd. I'll take the not, because I don't see real passion on the ground for Rubio, just a general, "Eh, I like that guy."
So my prediction: Cruz 31, Trump 25, Rubio 18. (And Rand Paul does have a decent chance of coming in 4th).
But if I'm right about Rubio supporters, it will mean an even bigger victory for Cruz.
Also, word on the ground is we're looking at a record turnout for Iowa R Caucus. The question is whether that turnout is from Trump's popularity or Cruz's organization. If the former, Trump can still win. If the latter, Cruz could win by 10.