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It looks like Fiorina will be excluded from Saturday's debate in New Hampshire. The criteria was top three in Iowa, or top six in recent NH or national polling. So, while there are eight remaining candidates (I still don't count Gilmore), only seven will be on stage. It's "fair" in that ABC published the criteria and stuck to it. And Fiorina really isn't going to stay in this much longer regardless. Since her message is much more conservative, she wasn't going to catch on in New Hampshire anyway.
This week's polling shows a bump for Rubio in New Hampshire. That has to be because of his finish in Iowa. My guess is that only two of the moderate group (Rubio, Bush, Kasich, Christie) have the ability to compete in the expensive SEC primary. For now, that looks like Rubio and Kasich. Christie seems to have entirely lost his December bump. Bush isn't gaining traction, but does have money whereas Kasich does not and barely registers where he hasn't campaigned.
For Trump, the goal is simply to maintain the 20-point advantage suggested in the polls. He underperformed in Iowa, but I think that was all about blowing off the debate. He won't make that mistake again, but a poor debate performance on Saturday could hurt him.
Cruz will be shooting for third place. His politics don't play well in New Hampshire and he hasn't been there a lot. Holding on to third is actually a message of strength there.
I think the game is over for Carson and Fiorina and anyone moderate who can't reach double digits next Tuesday.
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