Quote:
Originally Posted by flere-imsaho
With 6 days to go before Iowa....
My thinking hasn't changed much, but here's where I am today:
1. If Trump is competitive in Iowa and wins NH then I think we can assume he wins SC & NV (where he also leads, though with less polling) because the question mark over whether his people show up at the polls will be answered.
2. If #1 happens, it's a Trump vs. Cruz race unless the "Establishment" can coalesce around Rubio before Super Tuesday, which functionally means everyone else dropping out and endorsing Rubio, and even then it looks tough.
3. If #1 doesn't happen, then it's a Cruz vs. Rubio battle, and if Trump's support (even a portion) moves to Cruz (which, to me, seems most likely), then it's over and Cruz wins.
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So....................
Trump was clearly competitive in Iowa, but Rubio has walked away the big winner in the "narrative" (i.e. outperforming his polls). This has led to clear an unambiguous upticks in Rubio support in national and NH polls (aggregated).
So, two new underlying assumptions, based on Iowa:
1. You need to discount some of Trump's polling strength when translated to actual votes.
2. If there's a "silent" chunk of the GOP electorate, it looks like it might turn out for Rubio.
The other big influence right now is impacts on Cruz. There was negativity the day before and day of the Iowa caucus, and since he's not really on the radar for NH (a state, demographically, that's hostile to him), he's going to be off the radar for a couple of weeks and will clearly need a big win in SC.
Right now Trump has a 15-point lead in NH over Rubio. If that drops 5 points in 4 days (possible) and if we discount it 5 points based on the above, that makes it quite close. Plus, there's going to be a snowstorm in NH on Tuesday (Monday night into Tuesday). I'm not entirely sure who that favors.
Honestly? I think it's over and Rubio's going to be the candidate. Even if Trump manages to win NH, if Rubio gets anywhere close he keeps the "win" narrative going and if that's enough to get Bush, Christie and/or Kasich to drop and (better) endorse him, the Romney side of the party is going to coalesce around him and it's over.
Things that could stop this? Cruz does something to make himself less unlikeable and be the clear choice over Rubio for the Southeast part of the country. Or Trump somehow rebounds.