Quote:
Originally Posted by stevew
March 15 is the key. Has to win Florida. Has to hope Kasich drops out and strongly endorses him so that he can maybe win ohio. Otherwise this thing is totally over.
this is from today in Ohio- Trump 31, Kasich 26, Cruz 21, Rubio 13, Carson 5
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re: Ohio .. or not
Trump now leads Kasich even in Ohio.31-26, with Cruz 21 and Rubio 13.
Even if a Kasich endorsement brought 50% of his supporters with it, Trump would still lead Rubio.
Poll: Trump leads Kasich in Ohio | TheHill
edit to add: And by "win" in Florida, do you mean finish second?
Last round of Florida polling (mid January) had Trump around 40%, Cruz 19%, Rubio 13.7%
If the support of every single candidate that was still in the field at the time went to Rubio he would STILL be trailing Trump there.
For him to actually win in FL he would have to keep all of his support, add every single other candidate's support (aside from the two leaders) AND have one or both leaders lose voters to him. Is that realistic?