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We're getting into the period when inevitability starts to sink in with those who aren't inclined to follow this for a long time. It's hard to motivate people to come out for a primary. And Nevada is a closed caucus which required party registration a month ago.
Caucuses after Iowa typically have ridiculously low turnout.
So, what we don't know is if Trump had a good ground game in Nevada. Both Cruz and Rubio have legitimate claims to this being a strong state for them (Rubio actually having lived there). But Trump's casino connection is not a negative in Nevada.
My guess is Trump 43, Rubio 25, Cruz 16, Kasich 8, Carson 7.
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