Quote:
Originally Posted by Solecismic
We're getting into the period when inevitability starts to sink in with those who aren't inclined to follow this for a long time. It's hard to motivate people to come out for a primary. And Nevada is a closed caucus which required party registration a month ago.
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The Nevada Republican caucus has a history of throwing the polls out the window. 2012 was more accurate, but that was mostly because I think the pollsters knew Romney would win big and cooked the polls to get their. There is almost no result tonight (or tomorrow, or next week, depending on how long it takes to count) that would stun me other than a Carson landslide.
Pulling out my dart board, here's my WAG:
Trump 33
Rubio 26
Cruz 20
Kasich 9
Carson 7
Others 5
Whatever happens, there will be interesting takeaways from this one. Kasich not being able to capture any post-NH magic is spelling his doom soon, especially if he can't remain viable until Ohio. The recent trend is Rubio rising and Cruz falling back, so I'm watching to see if that continues or it flips again. Trump is also starting to show some warts, under performing versus his poll numbers. But anything for Trump at 40% or above and his coronation is beginning. Cruz and his Super PAC have poured a lot of late last-minute resources into Nevada with robocalls, knocking on doors and GOTV efforts. If he doesn't break 20, he's in deep trouble.