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Updating Super Tuesday expectations based on RCP averages:
Trump 211, Cruz 157, Rubio 130, Carson 49, Kasich 44.
All these polls reflect the landscape before the last round of crazy (many of the smaller states have little or no recent polling, so this is rough).
The question Tuesday is whether Trump accumulates more than 200 delegates. If not, the window is clearly open. Whether someone can enter is entirely another story.
To continue my stretches with sports analogies, let's say Trump receives 180 delegates on Tuesday. That would be like the first minute of Ronda Rousey's fight with Holly Holm, when Holm's jab was quite effective, but Rousey kept charging and most were still expecting the inevitable.
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