Quote:
Originally Posted by flere-imsaho
My predictions:
- Tomorrow, 3 viewpoints remain:
- The math says Trump is winning
- "Momentum" says Cruz is winning
- The GOP establishment still thinks Rubio can win, and uses for evidence his one state win and collection of 2nd and 3rd places, to which everyone else goes
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OK, seriously now.
1. Trump's still winning the math. He has more delegates than his 4 remaining opponents combined (7 delegates were won by candidates who have dropped out). He still needs just under 1000 more candidates to win a majority, though, so there's still a slog to go. But at this point he can afford a pullback from his polls and state wins and still get there. He's in the drivers' seat.
2. Once upon a time Cruz was meant to clean up in the "SEC Primary". He did well, yes, but certainly not up to expectations he would have had in a non-Trump world. He may be the only challenger within striking distance to Trump, but the rest of the map doesn't look favorable to him.
3. The remaining map looks most favorable to Rubio. He still needs to generate momentum and dent Trump to realize it, though. He's also been hurt by Kasich beating him in several states.
The next (and potentially final) turning point is March 15th, when (among others) both Florida & Ohio vote. They're important because:
1. They're winner-take-all states with a lot of delegates, so if Trump wins he sprints further ahead, but they also represent a way for others to catch up.
2. Kasich has said he'll drop out if he can't win Ohio.
3. Rubio absolutely must win his home state to show he's viable. Heck, to even
be viable, probably.
And, as of today....
Florida: Trump (40), Rubio (21), Cruz (16), Carson (5), Kasich (5); both Trump & Rubio trending up at Cruz's expense.
Ohio: Trump (31), Kasich (26), Cruz (21), Rubio (13), Carson (5); but that's based on only one recent poll
Best case for Rubio: Win FL and come in second to Kasich in OH, and then do a deal with Kasich (you can bet the Establishment would heavily back this, to Kasich's benefit).
Worst case for Rubio: Trump wins Florida. If Trump wins Florida and its 99 delegates, this race is probably over, and it's certainly over for Rubio.