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Assuming Trump goes into the convention with a plurality or a majority, I don't see any path where a Republican "third-party" candidate wins.
The third party run won't be on the ballot in many states. Where it is, I don't see how it wouldn't make even some reliably red states purple. It would only serve as a spoiler.
I don't think it would work, but let's say it did prevent anyone from reaching 270. Then, somehow, Congress puts the third-place winner in the White House. What kind of mandate would a President with 20% of the vote have? If the House started voting like that President had a mandate, what would happen in 2018?
I don't underestimate the natural tendency of any establishment from committing ritual seppuku over the sense of losing control, so maybe Republicans will follow this path. But the result is a splintered party.
And stupidly so. Trump is a thin-skinned fighter - a rarity in this field in that this type usually flames out long before a presidential run is possible. He is desperate for approval. If the establishment had looked to work with him to calm the rhetoric and focus his vague policy, it could have ridden along and had considerable influence.
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