OK, because I'm insane, I did some numbers.
Right now delegate counts (per RCP) are:
Trump: 319
Cruz: 226
Rubio: 110
Kasich: 25
There are 17 "states" between now and March 15th (inclusive): Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Puerto Rico, Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Guam, DC, Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Marianas, Ohio.
For the states that award their delegates proportionally and for which there is recent polling (KS, KY, LA, MI, MS & NC), if I go with current state polls, the totals go to (approximately):
Trump: 423
Cruz: 280
Rubio: 162
Kasich: 46
There are 3 states which award their delegates as winner-take-all and have recent polling (FL, IL & OH). If I award their delegates based on current state polling, the totals go to:
Trump: 657
Cruz: 280
Rubio: 162
Kasich: 46
(because Trump wins all three)
At this point there are 10 states unaccounted for, representing 252 delegates where either a) there's no recent polling (ME, PR, HI, ID, GU, DC, MO, MP) or they had their caucuses but won't release the results until later (CO, WY).
Since of those only Missouri & Marianas are winner-take-all, if we just divide up the 252 between the top 3 candidates, we get:
Trump: 741
Cruz: 364
Rubio: 288
OK. Note that this doesn't make any guess as to where Carson's % goes in the states where we have polling.
Now, let's say I do all the above, but give Carson's %s (in the states with polling data) to Cruz:
Trump: 741 (note: no WTA state switches)
Cruz: 386
Rubio: 288
Or, let's do the same, but for Rubio:
Trump: 741 (note: still no WTA state switches)
Cruz: 364
Rubio: 309
Let's say I do that and take 5% from Trump (in each state with polling) and give it to Rubio:
Trump: 726 (tied in KS, loses KY, loses MI, loses NC, but still wins all WTA states including FL, IL & OH)
Cruz: 364
Rubio: 324
Let's take that 5% from Trump and give it to Cruz instead, on top of Carson's %:
Trump: 722 (loses KS, LA, MI, NC & OH)
Cruz: 401
Rubio: 288
I have no idea what this all means and have to log off.
