Quote:
Originally Posted by flere-imsaho
OK, because I'm insane, I did some numbers.
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So..............
With the caveats that a) there were a bunch of assumptions built into my model that could change and b) I've been known to make horrible math mistakes, we nevertheless have these scenarios for the race after March 15th (i.e. after FL & OH):
"Best Case" for Cruz has him with 401 delegates. With roughly 1000 delegates left at that point, he would need to acquire roughly 800 (80%) to get a majority, or 300 (30%) to simply overhaul Trump's count at that point (and probably a lot more to stay in front of Trump to the convention.
"Best Case for Rubio has him with 324 delegates. Again with roughly 1000 delegates left at that point, he would need to acquire roughly 875 (87%) to get a majority, or 375 (37%) to simply overhaul Trump's count at that point (and probably a lot more to stay in front of Trump to the convention.
What does this mean? I think it means Mr. Contested Convention is still the front-runner. But as a secondary conclusion, I think it means that if Trump's opponents are going to make a meaningful difference, it needs to be in the races between Saturday (March 5th) and March 15th (inclusive).
And they have to dent his momentum. He can afford, at this point, a slip in the polls, to an extent. As the 538 analysis points out, he's running ahead of his delegate target so far, and Rubio & Cruz are running behind.