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It's still a campaign very limited by geography, but Cruz has had a real surge over the last week or so. This, and the campaign against Trump will make the next week rather interesting.
However, these primaries/caucuses are proportional and March 15 is still setting up to be a difficult day for the establishment.
It would be wonderful to imagine a country where people make fully informed decisions in voting. But we wouldn't be a Democracy or a Republic at that point, and we'd be even more dismayed by the decisions "other" informed voters made.
This is the year when people throughout the normal political spectrum decided that "elites" suck. Whether the elites are "one percenters" or "political cronies and the media," they suck. So you have about 35-40% of each side, which includes people who rarely voted in the past and might rarely vote in the future, voting for different forms of populism.
On both sides, the favorite is doing his or her best to address the concerns of those who are angry. And the populist seems more interested in forcing his issues to the forefront than in actually winning. The problem for the Republicans is that there never was a favorite. And now the establishment has taken this stance which only emboldens those who are angry and blurs the lines for those who aren't.
It's not over for Trump by any means. And we're running out of realistic outcomes that could seem positive for moderates who hate the idea of Trump as president. Cruz has momentum, but he's still a right-wing candidate who doesn't play well with others. Rubio's candidacy was modeled more after Bush 43's likable pitch than Reagan's. He's trashed himself. And Kasich doesn't inspire as a leader.
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