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If you believe in Trump, you believe that he's going to reset the map. We've had a very stable EC map since 2000. Trump is a candidate who can upset that stability.
Now, cutting against that idea is that Trump has not really outperformed his polling. This isn't a situation where Trump is behind going into all these primaries and pulling out victories. He polls as the leader, and then he wins. In fact, considering what a disruptive presence Trump is, it is kind of amazing how good the pollsters have been at pegging his support. So, if those same pollsters are having him lose to Hillary, then they might be right.
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