Quote:
Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan
I continue to laugh at all these pundits talking about a contested convention changing anything. Even if Trump coasts into the convention with ~1100 or so and the next person behind him is 300-350 behind, the convention has to nominate Trump or risk witnessing a total upheaval of their voting base.
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I don't think this is necessarily true.
Now, by way of full disclosure, I am vehemently anti-Trump, especially after having had first-hand dealings with the man. I am a Cruz supporter.
But recall that if 35% of GOP primary voters are voting Trump, that means 65% of GOP voters are effectively in the anti-Trump camp. Furthermore, when you consider that Trump is only getting his 35-45% support numbers in states with open primaries where independents and lazy Republican leaners and Democrats can vote ... that means even less than 35% of the GOP base is pro-Trump. As evidenced by states with closed caucuses and primaries, where Trump predictably fares significantly worse. See, I don't think Trump represents the base of the GOP. Just the opposite.
So if at the convention, the GOP chooses someone other than Trump, the majority of the GOP base will actually support the move. But if the convention chooses Trump, it will be nominating the populist guy the base rejects.
This all comes down again, I think, to the big gamble: Can the GOP still beat a weakened Dem (both Hillary and Bernie are flawed, and after 8 years of an unpopular Dem incumbent, any Dem would be weak here) if its base shows up en masse? Or does the GOP have to resort to a populist like Trump to win, even if that means spitting in the base's eye?
From the beginning, Cruz has been betting on the first possibility. My concern, as one who leans Republican, is that I don't like the odds of the second working. When 65% of the GOP base is against your nominee, I don't like the odds of the mushy middle showing up, making up the difference, and propelling you to victory. Can a party win by ditching its base? It didn't work with McCain or Romney, and I don't see it working with Trump.