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Old 03-14-2016, 12:07 PM   #4041
revrew
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Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Just outside Des Moines, IA
Quote:
Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA View Post
And it means that even more than that are effectively in the anti-Cruz camp. Hell, it means more than that are effectively in the anti-insert-candidate-here camp.

No, I don't think so. If all but Trump and "x" were to drop out, I think x would get the lion's share of the others' votes. I'm saying the anti-Trump sentiment is much stronger with the rest of the GOP than the anti-Cruz, anti-Rubio, anti-Kasich, etc.

Now, I'm not dreamy-eyed about Cruz's chances. I believe the establishment hates him even more than Trump and would squash him at all costs at convention.

But I don't think the anti-Cruz sentiment among the rest of the base is as strong as the anti-Trump. And the anti-Rubio isn't anywhere near as strong as the anti-Trump.

In other words, Trump is so divisive, I'm not sure he can get much above his 35%. I would argue over 50% of the GOP is so unfavorable toward Trump, he may struggle to get their support, even if all the others dropped out.

The others, however, could potentially pull together a coalition of GOP voters to be a significant bloc for the general - Cruz stronger among evangelicals and conservatives, Kasich strongest among the establishment, and Rubio with inroads into all camps, albeit lukewarm.
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