Short Course Season Review
The 2015/16 short course season has now come to an end. I figured I'd take a moment to look back at the performance of each of the kids, how they did, where they stand and provide some reflection on what to expect in long course and the following short course season.
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Brett
2015/16 Overview
This was a very up and down season for Brett. He started out the season on fire...in the very first meet he posted personal bests in 6 out of 10 swims, some of them significant improvements in time. Then he followed that first meet up with 4 out of 8 personal bests at the second meet. He looked to be progressing toward a big season. However, his improvements seemed to stall after that, and I'm not convinced that High School Swim isn't a negative influence on his performance. Swimming for South started right before the 3rd meet of the season, and from the 3rd meet on, Brett's improvements were few and far between. As I've written here before (maybe numerous times), Brett's focus isn't on swimming when he's doing high school meets. He's focused on socializing, which is ok with me, but unfortunately, I believe this leads to socializing becoming the major focus in year round meets too. This is something I'll have to plan to discuss with him before the start of the next short course season.
Also impacting his improvement was the need to focus on school. Brett struggled in several of his classes, especially towards the end of the first semester and then again a few weeks into the start of the second semester. This caused him to miss too many practices in Decemeber and February to be in peak shape. According to all reports his focus and effort in practice improved this year, so maybe we'll see him finally start to realize some of his potential. He also seems more willing to consider challenging himself in the distance freestyles, which may offer him a better chance to get a state cut. He's also hinted at wanting to get stronger, and may finally be willing to put in extra work with resistance bands, chin ups, and other exercises.
Here is basically how he progressed:
Code:
Stroke 2014/15 2015/16 Diff
50 Free 28.34 27.07 (-1.27)
100 Free 1:00.09 58.56 (-1.53)
200 Free 2:08.68 2:05.30 (-3.38)
500 Free 5:51.48 5:38.45 (-13.03)
1000 Free DNS
1650 Free 20:11.46 19:50.66 (-20.80)
100 Back 1:14.58 1:11.76 (-2.82)
200 Back 2:29.95 2:25.49 (-4.46)
100 Brst 1:14.58 1:12.60 (-1.92)
200 Brst 2:39.90 2:34.31 (-5.59)
100 Fly 1:18.17 1:17.99 (-.18) (but should be much faster with improved stroke)
200 Fly DNS
200 IM 2:30.12 2:23.02 (-7.1)
400 IM 5:02.68 5:07.00 (+4.32) (old time, I know he can go faster, just needs to do it)
Obviously, some of the time improvements listed above are quite good, and I don't want to down play that part of this. However, there is more time there to be dropped, and the inconsistency of his swims is another frustrating factor.
Long Course Outlook
I'm not sure what to expect during long course season. Currently Brett is grinding to get out of his Sophomore year with decent grades, which to me indicates he'll end up missing enough practices that it won't be insignificant, and will ultimately impact him, especially initially. Moreover, the long course season is very compressed, so not sure if he does miss a decent number of practices until school is out that he will have time to put together the training required to really improve. Brett will also be working as a lifeguard, and learning to drive so he can get his license in August. These will obviously be distractions. Another wild card is summer swim team. We are still debating if we want to get involved in that distraction as well. Countering that is his improved effort and focus, as well as what seems to be more desire to get better. I'm going to predict a very similar long course sesason to Brett's short course we just completed. Quite a few good swims that will move the needle on his personal bests (of course the times coming in are a year old so we should see some decent drops no matter what)...but inconsistent results with up and down swims across all strokes. If he gets anything from this long course season, I hope it is a mindset and a preparation for a much bigger Short Course in 2016/17.
Short Course 2016/17 Outlook
This is a long way off, and predicting Brett's mindset 10 minutes from now is often difficult, nearly 6 months from now is probably impossible. However, I get a sense from him that he really wants to improve now. As I mentioned he seems to want to start developing a plan on distance swims rather than simply churning laps. His practices have improved and the coaches seem genuinely excited about his new focus. With that in mind, combined with the fact that Brett should be finished with German (which is kicking his ass), accelerated math (which is one of the toughest classes at an already difficult high school), and Chemistry (which he just plan doesn't like), maybe his stress over school and his grades will settle in and allow him to focus on, dedicate himself to, and enjoy his swim training. I believe Brett could be in for a bid short course this season, and he'll need it if he legitimately wants to swim in college. I don't think he'll earn a state cut, but I do think he could put himself in striking distance on several events, and that will be huge progress.
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Bailey
2015/16 Overview
This was a long a difficult season for Bailey. During her medical check up, she learned from the doctor that she was probably finished growing, that she might edge up slightly but she probably won't add another inch to her height. This is someting a swimmer at 5' 2" who races fly doesn't really want to hear. She's already competing against girls that are 5'6" or bigger (some topping 5'9")...which makes her job to compete that much tougher. She also had a season with almost no personal bests at all...in fact coming into state she had only 6 PB swims in total, 3 in breast (and let's be frank, there's still a lot of time she can drop in breast), 1 in 200 IM (which was probably impacted by the improved breast), and a couple of late season backstroke improvement swims. Moreover, in a bunch of her events, she wasn't just adding time, she was adding 4+ seconds. I believe there were a number of contributing factors for this. First, she has stopped growing, so no more easy drops just because you are getting stronger. Second, she lost ALL of her good training parters. Her friends that were improving all started high school this year, which moved them up to the senior group, leaving Bailey with just 1 friend, who's not a good practicer and who's been struggling as a swimmer for 2+ years now. Third, she needed to learn how to work harder on her own. And finally, the coach worked on adjusting several of her strokes, which will invariably lead to slower times until the new stroke is ingrained. Thankfully, she had good swims at the end of the season meets (State, Sectionals, Divisionals). This really saved her season.
Here is how she progressed:
Code:
Stroke 2014/15 2015/16 Diff
50 Free Did not improve (improvement in 200 indicates this will drop soon)
100 Free Did not improve (improvement in 200 indicates this will drop soon)
200 Free 2:11.96 2:05.69 (-6.27)
500 Free Did not improve
1000 Free DNS
1650 Free DNS
100 Back 1:06.84 1:05.15 (-1.69)
200 Back 2:18.93 2:17.77 (-1.16)
100 Brst 1:25.03 1:22.00 (-3.03)
200 Brst 2:59.09 2:51.55 (-7.54)
100 Fly 1:02.07 1:01.25 (-.82)
200 Fly 2:17.54 2:13.79 (-3.75)
200 IM 2:26.54 2:24.70 (-1.76)
400 IM 5:00.18 4:55.00 (-5.18)
Bailey's best stroke is fly, and her times are very strong, in the top 10% of the nation. In fact, coming into this season she held AAAA times which is the top 5.5%, so expecting big drops when you are already in that elite area isn't reasonable. However, there is time to be dropped in the other strokes and that is where she needs to improve moving forward.
Currently, Bailey is ranked 208th in the nation in the 200 fly for 13 year olds, and she's just over 400 in the 100 fly. Using a USA Swimming point system formula based on swims across all strokes, Bailey is 691st ranked 13 year old in the nation, 152nd in the zone, 16th in the Southeastern Section, and she's the top 13 year old performer on Chattahoochee Gold.
Long Course Outlook
This long course season will be interesting to watch. Bailey's freestyle at Northern Divisionals indicates that she's starting to get that stroke figured out. She also started making in roads with her back as the season came to a close. In addition, the head coach has indicated that Bailey (along with several other swimmers), may move up to seniors before the Summer. If this happens the practice level will increase significantly, going from 6000 to 6200 yards on a hard day to around 8200 to 8500 on a normal day. This could lead to improved strength. This will also reunite her with her preferred training partners, which also could have positive effects on her swimming. I believe regardless of the timeframe of the move up, Bailey will have a good final long course age group season. Bailey, is currently so focused on having a good long course, that she has voted to skip Summer Team. This seems to be a good omen from my perspective. If she wants to have a good season so bad she'll throw away a goof around with your friends meet, I'm guessing that means she'll be working hard at practice everyday as well.
Short Course 2016/17 Outlook
Bailey has indicated she wants to have a strong final Age Group State swim next year. She wants to get back into A finals of the fly swims, and she wants to challenge for finals in some other races. She's already hinted a doing additional exercises, knowing that if she isn't going to get taller/bigger, she will need to get stronger. She's also setting some goals to earn her senior cuts so when she's out of age group she'll already be qualified to swim state.
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Bear
2015/16 Overview
Bear's season, unlike Bailey who really struggled, he seemed to improve significantly across the board. Even his breaststroke looks to be miles better than it was at the start of the season. Bear swam himself to another level, climbing into the time ranges many of his 14 year old friends were swimming. Moreover, Bear in effect, won 2 state championships for 13 year olds, only getting robbed of his medal and recognition by the administrative changes in the way the event was run this year. Bear has some pretty lofty goals for 2016/17, which I'll touch on below, but his season this year certainly set him up to be able to make a run at those heights.
Here is how Bear did during the season, and the numbers will speak for themselves:
Code:
Stroke 2014/15 2015/16 Diff
50 Free 27.19 25.50 (-1.69) – time is old, but didn’t swim this event late
100 Free 55.48 53.72 (-1.76)
200 Free 2:00.78 1:52.15 (-8.63)
500 Free 5:14.54 4:59.71 (-14.83)
1000 Free 10:40.83 10:09.27 (-31.56)
1650 Free 17:53.78 17:12.44 (-41.34)
100 Back 1:11.11 1:05.73 (-4.38)
200 Back 2:21.06 2:18.94 (-2.12)
100 Brst 1:23.97 1:17.09 (-6.88)
200 Brst 2:56.50 2:48.23 (-8.27) – another old time
100 Fly 1:04.00 1:00.07 (-3.93)
200 Fly 2:14.08 2:08.75 (-5.33)
200 IM 2:18.97 2:10.22 (-8.75)
400 IM 4:42.92 4:28.78 (-14.14)
Bear's season saw him finish 46th nationally in the 1000 for 13 year olds. He was also 55th in the 1650. Ironically, exactly like Bailey, Bear is 208th in the 200 fly. He also has 3 other swims inside the top 200 in the nation. This illustrates how big his season was. Hopefully, he'll continue to build on this progress. Using the same point system that placed Bailey above, Bear is 301 nationally, 76th in the zone, 8th in the Southeastern Section, and 3rd on the team (actually second as 1 of the boys above has aged up at this point).
Long Course Outlook
Ironically, I have quite a few concerns about this long course season. Not from a stand point of how Bear will swim (I'm sure he'll work hard and do extremely well), but ultimately, how this season will play out and how that will impact his self confidence. Given Bear's strong short course, he is desperately wanting to tryout for the Georgia Zone team. It is a really cool situation, where only a small handful of kids earn the right to represent Georgia in the Zones meet at the end of the Summer. The kids that are selected get a bunch of cool stuff: (Georgia Zone team swim bag, zone team tee-shirts, goggles, tech suits, etc.). They get exposed to elite level meet atmosphere and coaching, and there are a few kids on the team that have made it recently and he wants that experience. Problem is - he won't make the team. You have to remember that the team takes very few people (like 8 per age group), and Bear will turn 14 just 3 months before he'll be competing for a spot. To make matters worse, the distance swims don't earn an automatic berth. 4 of the 8 spots will be filled by the winners of the 4 stroke sprints...leaving Bear to compete for 1 of 4 spots, and his weakness is the short sprints. Meaning he'll probalby fail to earn many (or any) points in swims that are less than 200 yards, and there are a bunch of them, which is a lot of points handed out to other swimmers. Bear will have to earn high points in all his swims to have any shot, and in addition to the 13 year olds he competes against in short course, he'll inherit many 14 year olds who will age up after zones. My biggest fears are that he goes for zones, puts too much pressure on himself and swims poorly (we've seen that happen with his friend Riley), or he tries, swims well, doesn't earn a spot and he starts to question his ability.
Short Course 2016/17 Outlook
Assuming nothing catastrophic happens following long course. Bear has set himself up for a huge 2016/17 short course. He's positioned to compete for championships in the distance freestyles and the 500, with top 3 finishes possible in all the hard events. Moreover, he's got a shot to be on some very strong relays (similar to his position when he was 12 and earned 8 state medals). Also, he's in a very good position for top finishes in the Sectional meet next year as well. He could bring home more than 10 medals between the two meets next year. In addition, Bear has positioned himself to compete for Gold Team records in the 200, 500, 1000, and 1650 freestyles, and his coach has already announced the 1000 record is going down next year. Bear is very excited about these challenges, and he's already started his chin up routine to get stronger through the Summer. We will be adding band work, rowing, planks, etc. soon.
Note: I'm not going to guarantee that the math above is accurate - I did it in my head
Note: I have a spreadsheet that shows how close the kids are to important cut times, I'll try to figure out how to format that so I can post it here