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Old 06-19-2017, 08:53 PM   #31
nol
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Join Date: Oct 2003
Some thoughts on the players who have seemed to be in the consensus top 10-11 for a while -

Fultz: Have said about enough on his game, but in terms of the knee-jerk Ben Simmons comparisons that seem to come up when people ask if Fultz is a "winner," Simmons' LSU teammates were absolute world-beaters compared to what Fultz had at UW. This covers things well enough in terms of the situation Fultz was stuck in, whereas LSU the year before Simmons (and two other top-100 recruits, one of whom was a fellow McDonald's All-American) came made it to the round of 32 and returned a higher percentage of its scoring than Washington's NIT team from the season before Fultz. He had a higher assist percentage and lower turnover percentage (the percentage of a team's possessions that end in an assist/turnover) than Lonzo Ball did, so any conception of Fultz being selfish or a bad passer is vastly overblown: he flat-out didn't have teammates who could do much once he passed to them.

As an added bonus, Fultz is very young for his class: he's less than a month older than presumptive 2018 top draft prospects Michael Porter Jr. and Mo Bamba and was more considerably more impressive than either of the two when they represented the United States in U18 competition last summer. Below is a game I watched, which team USA very well would have lost to Canada without Fultz; at 1:49 in the video it's a 2 point game with 4 minutes left, and Fultz makes some crucial baskets down the stretch:



Ball: I'd consider him in his own tier as the 2nd-best player. Depending on how you want to parse credit among him and his UCLA teammates, he could seem even better than Fultz or not even a top-5 player in this draft. I think Ball's passing is even underrated by raw stats because he's the anti-Rondo in that he'll immediately give it up whenever there's an opportunity to be gained, even if it won't result in an assist for him.

If he didn't have such weird shooting form I'd consider him over Fultz, but in the NBA guys will be able to close the distance on him much more quickly and limit his ability to shoot off the dribble. With that said, Ball is a smart enough player that he can figure out ways to patch that up with floaters and off-ball cuts even though he won't be a team's leading scorer. Drafting Jackson #2 wouldn't be a great way to screw the Celtics over as it would make the 3rd pick an even more valuable trade chip with Ball still on the board.

Isaac: I think he's being miscast as a wing and will end up being a stretch 4 (and probably even a 5 at times) with all-defense potential once he puts on more weight. Don't look to him to be a 20-point scorer but I probably would consider him the #3 best player. He'd be a perfect fit in Minnesota if he's still on the board at 7 but most likely won't be.

Fox: With his quickness, finishing, defense, and passing, he brings enough to the table that he'll still be alright without a jump shot, and his free throw percentage, shooting form, and willingness to at least attempt a few three-pointers suggest he's far from a lost cause as a shooter. Now, if I were Sacramento would I trade #5 and #10 to move up to #3 and pick him? No, but the Kings' track record of making decisions like that would be why Boston was okay with putting #1 protection on the Lakers' pick in order to get a chance at Sacramento's 2019 pick.

Jackson: He should be very good but I'm having a hard time seeing him becoming excellent at any one thing. I wouldn't be too optimistic about his shooting considering his free-throw percentages and the fact he was in the same kind of situation as Justise Winslow at Duke where he could be a smallball 4 and be matched up against much slower college players who had to back off of him for fear of the drive. Also when we're talking about red flags for intangibles or whatever, I seem to be in the minority for considering a misdemeanor to be a much bigger deal than failing to magically make a bunch of bad basketball players good.

Monk: Of the players in the 3-10 range he appeared to be the best "fit" for the Sixers, so I'm glad that they did what it took to move up to #1 instead as he'd have been a slight reach at #3. Not sure if he can create much off the dribble for himself in a half-court setting, but he's really fun to watch and he seems better than Jamal Murray, who just had a nice rookie season.

Smith: As far as simple NBA comparisons go, Smith and Steve Francis is one that sticks. Steve Francis with the better shot selection of the modern NBA would be a very good offensive player, but at the same time I feel like Smith is the type of guy a team or two would have consider the 2nd-best prospect, and if Fultz, Ball, and Fox are off the board I'd rather trade the pick and then maybe buy low on some point guard who's already in the league. Definitely a great athlete, and maybe even a better one than what he showed in college as he was coming off an ACL tear the previous year; of course that's somewhat of a double-edged sword as it could also mean he's more likely to suffer a future injury.

Ntilikina: The upside there is in a George Hill type of role rather than strictly as a lead guard. He doesn't look very athletic, but he's even younger than Fultz and that could very well change as he puts on muscle. By all accounts is very intelligent and hard-working.

Tatum: Very solid player who doesn't really have any holes in his game, but it's hard to see him becoming an All-Star unless he becomes a sniper from 3. If he mostly sticks to mid-range stuff I'm not terribly excited about him.

Markkanen: Bigger version of Ryan Anderson. Hard to see him being a bust (the stretch 4s who do end up being busts are smaller and not as good of shooters) but he's not going to turn things around singlehandedly for a bad team.

Collins: I hardly watch any college basketball, but a couple times a season I dig through the stats to see who looks like they could be an under-the-radar NBA prospect. Collins' stats jumped out enough to me in early December that he seemed destined to be the 2nd-best Gonzaga player in the NBA after Stockton, and through the rest of the season his stock seems to have climbed to the point that I'd consider him more or less properly rated.

Favorite players projected outside the lottery:

OG Anunoby - think he could've possibly played his way into the top 5 this year if not for his ACL injury. Definitely has 1st team all-defense potential if he can play enough offense to stay on the court, and even if he can't shoot he looks to have the size, athleticism, and finishing ability to be a threat on cuts and the offensive glass.

Harry Giles - I've been thinking of Fultz as the potential #1 overall pick since these players were high school juniors, in large part because Giles was #1 at the time and his huge knee brace and injury history scared me off (and then I wanted to look beyond Jackson, who was much older than his classmates). I don't consider this draft particularly deep because a lot of the players are bigs, and based on the playoffs there just aren't going to be a ton of minutes available for those guys. Once you get to 13-15 or so, I wouldn't fault anyone for rolling the dice on Giles' health.

Jonah Bolden - I don't know what happened with him at UCLA, but based on this past season in Europe (he was named the top prospect in a league where the past three winners were Dario Saric, Nikola Jokic, and Ante Zizic) I'd take a shot at him relatively early, even over someone like Justin Jackson (or at least I'd trade down from the mid-teens where Jackson figures to be picked and grab Bolden later). 6'10' combo forward whose outside shot looks legitimate enough for the amount of athleticism and defensive versaitility he has.

Jordan Bell - can easily see him playing a Tristan Thompson type of role, which is great for a player projected to be available in the late 1st/early 2nd. He looks to be able to guard everyone except the most extremely strong centers and extremely quick point guards.

Josh Hart - I would bet on him being a good role player who sticks around in the NBA for a while, and since there certainly aren't 20+ players in a draft who actually end up doing so, he seems quite undervalued to me.

Derrick White - similar mold as Hart, with both players being 2 guards who can space the floor well enough while having the potential to guard multiple positions on defense and make plays for others off the dribble.

honorable mention: Jonathan Jeanne, who I thought had an outside chance of developing into someone who in 5 years would be considered one of the top 2-3 players from this class but was diagnosed with Marfan Syndrome (same thing that prevented Isaiah Austin from being drafted a few years ago) at the NBA combine.

Last edited by nol : 06-20-2017 at 12:25 AM.
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