Feb. 27-March 5, 2023
26 games on the schedule this week, including 1 feature game in the Pac 12, so let's start there.
3/4/23-
Washington State (DeShawn St. John) @
Colorado (Rob Nielsen) -- This one was close at halftime, but the Buffs used some tight defense in the 2nd half to blow it open. Colorado forced 17 turnovers total, but many of them came in the 2nd half and led to easy fast break points as the Buffs salvage a .500 record in the Pac 12.
Final Score: Colorado- 82, Washington State- 63
Now for the rest of the weekly recap:
Hartford (David Ginsberg) -- 13-17, 6-10 America East.
3/2/23- America East Quarterfinals vs. (2) New Hampshire (W 66-55).
The Hawks extend their season for at least 1 more game as they try to start a Cinderella run into the NCAA Tournament. They'll need to win 2 more games to get there though.
UConn (Randolph Childress) -- 13-17, 10-8 T-4th American.
3/4/23 vs. Cincinnati (L 56-44).
Just 1 game for the Huskies this week, and it didn't go well as the 4 game winning streak is broken. They lost the tiebreaker for 4th place, but it really didn't matter, as they'll face the 4th place team in the American Quarterfinals next week.
Tulsa (Will Brown) -- 14-17, 10-8 T-4th American.
3/1/23 at UCF (L 72-69).
3/4/23 at Tulane (L 87-58).
2 road losses this week for the Golden Hurricane lock them in a tie for 4th place, which they've won. Again, it doesn't really matter, because they'll face the 5th seed UConn next week in the American Quarterfinals. That means 1 of our FOFC coaches in the American will end their season for sure next week, while the other will extend it for at least 1 game.
Duke (Dean Hoo) -- 18-12, 10-8 7th ACC.
3/1/23 at N.C. State (W 76-74, OT).
3/4/23 vs. Miami (L 67-55).
A split for the Blue Devils, as they win in OT on the road then lose at home. They'll get the 7th seed in the ACC Tournament and get a bye into the Second Round where they will take on the winner between 15th seed Boston College and 10th seed Miami.
TCU (Bee Mighty) -- 17-13, 8-10 T-6th Big 12.
2/27/23 at West Virginia (W 68-57).
3/4/23 at Oklahoma (L 70-58).
A road split for the Horned Frogs who fail to finish .500 in conference. They lost the tiebreaker for 6th place and will be the 7th seed in the Big 12 Tournament, they'll open up in the First Round against 10th seed Texas Tech.
Michigan State (Al Mighty) -- 19-11, 10-8 T-5th Big Ten.
3/1/23 vs. Purdue (L 99-93).
3/4/23 vs. #3 Wisconsin (L 95-87).
A consistent week for the Spartans, but not the way they wanted it. They lost 2 this week but both were close. They do win the tiebreaker for 5th place though and will be the 5th seed in the Big Ten Tournament. They'll get a First Round bye and take on the (13) Nebraska/(12) Minnesota winner in the Second Round.
Northwestern (Ess Vee) -- 18-11, 9-9 7th Big Ten.
3/1/23 vs. Maryland (W 81-66).
3/4/23 at Michigan (L 72-64).
A split for the Wildcats, winning at home and losing on the road. They'll be the 7th seed in the Big Ten Tournament and will open up in the Second Round against 10th seed Purdue.
Hawaii (B.B. Gunn) -- 18-11, 8-8 T-4th Big West.
3/4/23 vs. UC Irvine (L 74-62).
A tough one for the Warriors who were looking to finish back over .500 in conference play but it wasn't meant to be. They do win the tiebreaker for 4th place and will be the 4th seed in the Big West Tournament. They'll open up in the Quarterfinals against 5th seed Cal Poly.
#25 FIU (Brett Hawkins) -- 22-7, 13-5 T-2nd Conference USA.
3/2/23 vs. #13 UAB (L 98-90).
3/4/23 vs. Louisiana Tech (W 85-76).
A split for the Golden Panthers, who just couldn't get by UAB. They finished 2nd in a 3 way tie for 2nd place, so they'll get the 3rd seed in the Conference USA Tournament. They'll get a double bye into the Quarterfinals where they'll take on either (14) Florida Atlantic, (11) Western Kentucky, or (6) Middle Tennessee.
Rice (Charlie Shocker) -- 10-19, 5-13 12th Conference USA.
3/2/23 at South Dakota State (L 68-62).
3/4/23 vs. Florida Atlantic (W 72-70).
Finally! The 10 game losing streak comes to an end in the final regular season game for the Owls, as they beat FAU. They'll be the 12th seed in the C-USA Tournament and open up in the First Round against 13th seed Charlotte, hoping to build a winning streak.
Colorado (Rob Nielsen) -- 17-13, 9-9 T-5th Pac 12.
3/2/23 at Utah (L 68-58).
3/4/23 vs. Washington State- feature game, highlighted above.
A split for the Buffaloes, who do break a 3 game losing streak with the win over Washington State. Just no consistency since late January, as they ended up losing 8 of their last 11 regular season games. They also lost the 5th place tiebreaker and will be the 6th seed in the Pac 12 Tournament. They'll open up against the 11th seed Utah team that just beat them earlier this week.
#17 Stanford (Benito Sanchez) -- 22-8, 14-4 T-1st Pac 12.
3/2/23 at Washington (L 55-50).
3/4/23 vs. California (W 87-75).
A split for the Cardinal, who will split the regular season Pac 12 title with Gonzaga, as that loss to Washington kept them from winning the title outright. They do get the tiebreaker for the top seed in the Pac 12 Tournament, and they'll get a bye into the Quarterfinals where they'll take on the winner of the First Round game between 9th seed Oregon and 8th seed Washington State.
UCLA (Tim Shepard) -- 16-14, 9-9 T-5th Pac 12.
3/2/23 at California (W 103-94).
3/4/23 vs. Utah (W 69-61).
A good week for the Bruins, who won against teams that beat Colorado and Stanford, respectively. A good recovery for UCLA, as they finish the regular season winners of 6 of their last 8 games to hold out hope for a postseason berth. They won the 5th place tiebreaker and will be the 5th seed in the Pac 12 Tournament, opening up in the First Round against 12th seed Arizona State.
Washington State (DeShawn St. John) -- 15-14, 8-10 T-8th Pac 12.
3/2/23 at #20 Gonzaga (L 82-72).
3/4/23 at Colorado- feature game, highlighted above.
The Cougars had tough competition this week on the road, losing twice. They won the tiebreaker for the 8th seed, but we'll find out the real winner next week, as they face 9th seed Oregon in the First Round of the Pac 12 Tournament.
#12 Alabama (Roy Rogers) -- 22-8, 13-5 T-1st SEC.
3/1/23 at VCU (L 66-50).
3/4/23 vs. Kentucky (W 79-78, OT).
You can bet the Crimson Tide want back that game at VCU, as they didn't show up. That broke a 7 game winning streak and cost them the SEC Title outright, as they'll have to share it with Arkansas. They do win the tiebreaker for top seed in the SEC Tournament, and they'll get a double bye into the Quarterfinals where they await the winner of a Second Round game between 9th seed LSU and 8th seed Missouri.
Here's a look at the national top 25 heading into the week of March 7-13:
Code:
# Team FPV Record Points Prv Conference test test test test
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1. Syracuse (72) 29-2 1800 1 Atlantic Coast Conference
2. Notre Dame 26-4 1728 2 Atlantic Coast Conference
3. Louisville 23-6 1651 5 Atlantic Coast Conference
4. North Carolina 22-8 1529 4 Atlantic Coast Conference
5. Arkansas 24-6 1492 6 Southeastern Conference
6. Georgetown 23-7 1456 7 Big East Conference
7. Wisconsin 23-7 1404 3 Big Ten Conference
8. Virginia 23-7 1280 11 Atlantic Coast Conference
9. Ohio State 22-8 1185 8 Big Ten Conference
10. Florida State 22-8 1178 9 Atlantic Coast Conference
11. Arizona 23-7 1110 10 Pacific-12 Conference
12. Yale 26-5 954 14 Ivy League
13. Mercer 27-5 862 18 Southern Conference
14. Alabama 22-8 821 12 Southeastern Conference
15. Gonzaga 22-8 810 20 Pacific-12 Conference
16. Wichita State 24-7 688 16 Missouri Valley Conference
17. UAB 24-6 640 13 Conference USA
18. Villanova 23-8 625 15 Big East Conference
19. Stanford 22-8 533 17 Pacific-12 Conference
20. Old Dominion 23-6 388 NR Conference USA
21. North Texas 23-6 324 19 Conference USA
22. Kent State 23-7 251 NR Mid-American Conference
23. UC Riverside 24-6 206 NR Big West Conference
24. Western Michigan 23-7 155 NR Mid-American Conference
25. BYU 23-9 136 NR West Coast Conference
Others Receiving Votes:
St. John's 21-9 44 Big East Conference
FIU 22-7 42 Conference USA
Davidson 22-8 35 Atlantic 10 Conference
Oklahoma State 23-8 30 Big 12 Conference
Iowa State 20-10 25 Big 12 Conference
Saint Joseph's 22-8 12 Atlantic 10 Conference
Baylor 21-9 3 Big 12 Conference
Massachusetts 22-8 3 Atlantic 10 Conference
Both Alabama and Stanford drop 2 spots in the polls after losing a game this week and a chance to win their respective conference titles outright. FIU also split this week and falls out of the top 25 but is still receiving a lot of votes.
Now for a look at the mid-major top 25 going into the week of March 7-13:
Code:
# Team FPV Record Points Prv Conference test test test test
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1. Wichita State (59) 24-7 1786 1 Missouri Valley Conference
2. Yale (8) 26-5 1697 3 Ivy League
3. UAB (5) 24-6 1628 2 Conference USA
4. Kent State 23-7 1528 4 Mid-American Conference
5. Mercer 27-5 1434 6 Southern Conference
6. BYU 23-9 1402 8 West Coast Conference
7. Western Michigan 23-7 1396 5 Mid-American Conference
8. Old Dominion 23-6 1238 15 Conference USA
9. Davidson 22-8 1202 7 Atlantic 10 Conference
10. Saint Joseph's 22-8 1166 14 Atlantic 10 Conference
11. UC Riverside 24-6 1120 12 Big West Conference
12. FIU 22-7 1013 9 Conference USA
13. Massachusetts 22-8 922 10 Atlantic 10 Conference
14. North Texas 23-6 916 11 Conference USA
15. Portland 22-9 782 13 West Coast Conference
16. San Diego State 20-10 682 21 Mountain West Conference
17. Cincinnati 21-9 658 22 American Athletic Conference
18. UC Irvine 21-10 578 16 Big West Conference
19. Tulane 21-9 471 19 American Athletic Conference
20. St. Bonaventure 20-10 465 17 Atlantic 10 Conference
21. Loyola Chicago 20-10 398 18 Missouri Valley Conference
22. Northern Iowa 21-12 282 NR Missouri Valley Conference
23. Bradley 19-11 180 20 Missouri Valley Conference
24. Richmond 20-10 152 NR Atlantic 10 Conference
25. Green Bay 21-11 75 NR Horizon League
Others Receiving Votes:
Manhattan 22-10 64 Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
New Mexico 18-10 56 Mountain West Conference
Illinois State 20-14 30 Missouri Valley Conference
Drexel 21-10 24 Colonial Athletic Association
Pepperdine 18-11 12 West Coast Conference
Florida Gulf Coast 22-9 11 Atlantic Sun Conference
UNLV 18-11 9 Mountain West Conference
Southern Illinois 19-12 7 Missouri Valley Conference
Akron 20-10 6 Mid-American Conference
Oakland 20-10 6 Horizon League
Western Carolina 22-9 3 Southern Conference
Memphis 18-11 1 American Athletic Conference
FIU drops 3 spots in the mid-major top 25, while Hawaii loses what few votes they had.
Now for the final edition of the bubble watch for the 2022-2023 season. Starting with the Overall Bubble Watch which sees... you guessed it, 2 of our FOFC teams.
Code:
Team Record RPI vs. 1-50 vs. 51-100 vs. 101-200 vs. 200+ SOS Projected
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Texas A&M 19-11 .550 (62) 5-4 2-3 6-4 6-0 74 In
Davidson 22-8 .566 (40) 2-2 4-2 7-3 9-1 158 In
Portland 22-9 .567 (38) 2-1 4-3 6-5 10-0 106 In
St. Bonaventure 20-10 .575 (33) 2-6 2-1 13-2 3-1 28 In
Duke 18-12 .582 (24) 5-9 4-2 3-0 6-1 4 In
Seton Hall 18-12 .563 (45) 6-4 0-3 12-5 0-0 31 In
Mississippi 19-11 .564 (42) 2-3 6-0 6-7 5-1 37 In
Pepperdine 18-11 .554 (56) 3-5 0-2 7-4 8-0 76 In
Hawaii 18-11 .552 (59) 1-2 5-4 8-4 4-1 102 Out
Green Bay 21-11 .554 (57) 2-1 5-4 9-3 5-3 109 Out
Tulane 21-9 .561 (48) 0-1 4-3 11-2 6-3 115 Out
Iowa 18-12 .546 (67) 6-4 1-8 8-0 3-0 63 Out
UNLV 18-11 .546 (68) 1-1 4-5 6-3 7-2 87 Out
New Mexico 18-10 .547 (66) 0-0 5-5 4-3 9-2 111 Out
Indiana State 19-14 .577 (29) 9-9 0-3 6-2 4-0 6 Out
Duke drops a little, down to the Last Four In. It's critical that they win their Second Round game of the ACC tournament, whoever they play, whether it be Miami and Boston College. A win there would probably seal their spot in the Big Dance, especially with a good effort in the Quarterfinals against Notre Dame. But if the Miami/BC winner beats the Blue Devils, that might be enough to knock them into NIT land.
Hawaii on the other hand, drops to the First Four Out. In fact, they are the first team out on the list. They MUST win their Quarterfinal game in the Big West Tournament against Cal Poly, and even then a semifinal win might be necessary, depending on what else happens. The Big West quarterfinal is a must win though, that we know for sure.
Now for the rest of the FOFC Bubble Watch:
Locks:
Michigan State,
Northwestern,
FIU,
Stanford,
Alabama.
The only thing that changed this week was the Overall Bubble Watch in which Hawaii went from being projected In to being Projected Out. Everything else was the same.