Quote:
Originally Posted by Galaril
538 has Biden up by 17 points and he is slightly behind Warren with the Vegas line so not sure what you are seeing.
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Bovada and Predicit translate to around a 33-35% chance for Warren and a 27%-28% chance for Biden. Not a blowout or anything, but clearly ahead for a while, whereas Biden beats her by double digits in some of the polls. Which is why I mostly look at the gambling numbers at this point for a quick look at where everyone stands (or at least, the perception of where everyone stands based on people who back their projections with money), as the polls are all over the place.
I think if I asked a bunch of people on the street who don't closely follow politics who the most likely Dem nominee is, Biden would win by a lot. (I don't know if there's polling on that kind of thing). So I wonder if Warren has even better chances than the gamblers think, since it looks like she does better as a pick with the people paying the most attention.