[GrantDawg]

All that being said, it is really beginning to look like the campaign is going toward a Medicare-for-all candidate. Elizabeth Warren has opened up a lead over Biden in Iowa. She is only up by 2 points as a first choice, but her lead on the first or second choice question is staggering. Sanders is fading fast, and it already looking like a two person race. I can tell you by the anecdotal daughter report (my daughter is 23. She gave me the heads up four years ago that Sanders was surging among her age group four years ago) that all the Sanders supporters her age she knows have seemingly switch that excitement to Warren this time.

The one to watch might still be Pete. He seems to still have the possible room to grow. Meanwhile, Harris has basically moved to Iowa and hasn't moved the needle at all. Booker is making noise that he may be out by the end of the month.
It looks like to me, Biden's largest strength left is his support among African-Americans, which is not going to help him in Iowa and New Hampshire. If he takes defeats in those two states, he is most likely going to lose that support. AA, among almost all Dem groups, lists elect-ability as the top issue of concern. If he opens with two losses, expect a mass exodus as his best argument is destroyed. Can Warren make inroads into the AA demo?