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Old 03-03-2020, 10:03 AM   #2370
Galaril
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Join Date: Jan 2004
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arles View Post
Maybe they should go to a caucus format then

My guess is Bernie wins California, Mass, Minn, Colorado, Utah, Maine, Vermont
Biden wins NC, VA, Tenn, Ala, OK and Ark

I think Texas is a tossup, I'm leaning Bernie. I plugged those results into the 538 projecting system and here's the results:

Chances at winning a majority (in 145 simulations):
Sanders - 13.8%
Biden - 13.8%

Ave Delegates (in 145 simulations):
Sanders - 1,610
Biden - 1,564

Yowsers - this could be quite the primary finish! BTW, if Biden wins Texas, he goes to 29.1% at a Majority (vs 3% for Sanders) and has a 400 delegate avg lead. Texas could be the key to deciding the democrat nominee (think about that for a minute).

Polls in most states this am are showing a huge bounce for Biden. Also if Biden can win Texas the SE and stay close in Cali he can do well enough. If Bloomberg drops after Biden will get those which will help him in the other big states after ST.
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