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Originally Posted by CU Tiger
#1 I don’t know . I have no direct knowledge and I don’t know how anyone does.
#2 just think about the implications to get to 100k. Using my math above if all 5 each infected 3 people. And all 15 of those people each infected 3 people then all 45 of those people each infected 3 people... 9 times over gets you to 100k. If one of the first folks only infects 1 then we got two more levels to go through. Of course if he infects 20 then it’s shorter. But this incubation /symptom/ possible positive cycle makes it unlikely based on current known info that we are on generation 9 in Ohio.
#3 the other side of the argument , if there are 100,000 infected and bodies aren’t piling up in the street ...then the mortality rate is lower than feared.
Also have you seen the Iran digging mass graves headlines?
Read deeper, in a current cemetery they have identified a 100 yard trench 5’ deep.
So if they stack 6’ tall folks head to toe no casket no space between each that’s 50 people. Tragic for sure but not 10s of thousands of bodies like the language imagery creates.
I’m simply not worried about it.
It’s either not that bad and no need to worry. Or it’s truly a plague and it’s going to wipe us out and I can’t do a damn thing about it so why worry.
I’ll just stay down on the farm, go out a bit less... and see what happens.
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Going off of what some of the earlier models estimate, we should be at a 10-20x multiplier of what we're reporting now. That means we're probably looking at 30Kish cases in the US right now. Like that the Houston area has like "13 confirmed cases". Sure, because we're not testing anyone. but if you told me the number was in hundreds (say, 13x20), I'd buy it.
Open Letter 1 on COVID-19
Unfortunately, exponential growth is a real bitch. Assume about a 30% increase in cases per day (i.e. doubling every 3 days), those numbers get really bad really fast. That puts us at 2-5M cases by the first Friday of April. Hopefully the social distancing will put a dent in some of that because already having infected 1 of 100 people in such a short span is just staggering.
SI